Go Lean…Caribbean

Go Lean Commentary

“Muddling Through” …

… this is the assessment from the below news article, assessing what the Caribbean’s economic prospects would be if the current administrative processes and current economic roadmap were to continue.

Yet, this commentary asserts that the Caribbean’s economic engines are in crisis… but that this crisis would be a terrible thing to waste. Therefore there is the urgent need to reform and transform the societal engines so as to obtain greater Caribbean prosperity.

This subject – how to get greater Caribbean prosperity – is the theme of this commentary and this news article (and VIDEO) here:

Title: Report outlines scenarios for greater Caribbean prosperity
WASHINGTON, United States (CMC) — A new report has underscored how more integration and better governance “hold the key” to greater prosperity in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The report commissioned by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) non-profit Atlantic Council describes a baseline “business as usual” scenario that would see 57 million more Latin Americans and Caribbean citizens joining the middle class over the coming 14 years, assuming that the governments continue largely on their current course.

Titled “Latin America and the Caribbean 2030: Future Scenarios” the report was discussed by IDB  President Luis Alberto Moreno and the Atlantic Council’s Jason Marczak with representatives of the business, academic and diplomatic communities.

The IDB said annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in this scenario would be 2.4 percent, slightly outperforming the US growth rate of 2.2 percent.

The region would face growing challenges in the areas of income distribution, demographic changes and climate change impacts, the IDB said.

However, the report indicates that global and regional trends, combined with ambitious domestic reforms, could put Latin America and the Caribbean on a path toward faster growth and prosperity.

It offers positive scenarios in which the region embraces better governance and more integration, leading to a doubling of infrastructure investments, big reductions in homicides and less tax evasion, among other pluses.

On the other hand, less optimistic scenarios based on a more fragmented region forecast continued high crime, more political instability, low productivity, dependence on commodity exports, and difficulties in attracting foreign investments, the IDB said.

“Latin America and the Caribbean 2030: Future Scenarios,” written by Marczak, and Peter Engelke, of its Strategic Foresight Initiative, outlines several alternative scenarios as to how the region could unfold.

“Muddling Through” the base-case scenario, shows what current trends point to modest economic fortunes and relatively stable democracies.

Among its findings, the middle class increases to 345 million people by 2030.

“Governance on the Rise or an Illicit World Afloat” looks at the potential for qualitative jumps in governance on the heels of active citizen engagement and digital revolutions or, alternatively, the potential for corruption scandals, transnational crime and weakened rule of law.

With better governance, the IDB said regional economy grows by an additional seven to 10 per cent. But foreign direct investment shrinks by more than 50 per cent in a scenario of growing crime and impunity.

“Toward Integration or Fragmentation Prevails” foresees what could happen if countries cooperate in making investments and joint policies in finance, labour markets, energy, infrastructure and education.

In a contrasting scenario, the IDB said some countries may be “pulled toward different economic poles, making the region less coherent than ever”.

“The future holds great promise but also the risk of great uncertainty. Looking to 2030, middle-class growth, stronger economies, healthier people, and greater security will come only through a call to action today,” Marczak said.
Source: Jamaica Gleaner – Daily Newspaper; posted 12/02/2016; retrieved 12/13/2016 from: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Report-outlines-scenarios-for-greater-Caribbean-prosperity

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VIDEO – Latin America and the Caribbean 2030: Future Scenarios – https://youtu.be/tgfc_QDhd-4

Published on Dec 6, 2016 – Inter-American Development Bank – Strategic foresight is critical to moving a country or region in the right direction. Leaders nearly everywhere in the world are overwhelmed by the crush of events, focusing their attention on the present rather than the long term. Latin America and the Caribbean is no different, and a new report by the Atlantic Council and commissioned by the IDB explores the future scenarios that will shape the public policy debate in the region in the next 15 years.

The foregoing article summarizes that greater prosperity can be had by embracing regional integration; as sampled here:

… more integration and better governance “hold the key” to greater prosperity.

So what will be the embraced choice of Caribbean stakeholders? Do you want to “muddle through” or do you want greater prosperity?

Duh!!!

(See the full report in the link in the Appendix below).

This has been the assertion all along – that interdependence and regional integration is better than the status quo – by the movement behind the book Go Lean…Caribbean, and all of its many aligning blog-commentaries. This aligns with the African proverb:

If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together.

This book Go Lean… Caribbean serves as a roadmap for the introduction and implementation of the technocratic Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU), a graduated iteration of previous regional integration efforts for the democracies and territories in and around the Caribbean Sea. The following 3 prime directives are explored in full details in the roadmap:

• Optimization of the economic engines in order to grow the regional economy to $800 Billion & create 2.2 million new jobs.
• Establishment of a security apparatus to protect the resultant economic engines.
• Improve Caribbean governance to support these engines.

This roadmap seeks to reboot the regional engines so as to reform and transform Caribbean society.

All in all, the book and accompanying blogs declare that the proposed CU Trade Federation is an expression successful integration. It calls for all of the Caribbean, all 30 member-states need to confederate, collaborate, and convene for solutions to the dysfunctional societal eco-systems. This is expressed as a pronouncement in the opening Declaration of Interdependence, (Page 11) with the following statement:

While our rights to exercise good governance and promote a more perfect society are the natural assumptions among the powers of the earth, no one other than ourselves can be held accountable for our failure to succeed if we do not try to promote the opportunities that a democratic society fosters.

The vision is for a confederation of the 30 member-states of the Caribbean into an integrated Single Market ; this means the Dutch, English, French and Spanish speaking territories. This also includes the US territories of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Tactically, the CU allows for a separation-of-powers between the member-state governments and the new federal agencies.

The Caribbean member-states have a lot of the same problems as other regions around the world – think income distribution, demographic changes and climate change impacts – the best practice for mitigating these problems is to integrate regional neighbors. These problems tend to be too big for any one member-state to contend with alone.

According to the foregoing, in addition to assuaging the negatives, there is the positive result of growing the economy by numbers like “seven to 10 per cent” annually. This point also aligns with the Go Lean book (Page 67), which asserted that the Caribbean Single Market can enjoy hyper-growth, with compounded figures like:

The Go Lean book details these series of community ethos, strategies, tactics, implementations and advocacies designed to facilitate the delivery of the regional solutions; see here:

Due to the many failures in the Caribbean region, many people have fled to find refuge in foreign countries, resulting in a debilitating brain drain. While the Caribbean needs its people, these people need a better Caribbean society – more prosperous.

The Go Lean roadmap for the CU stresses the need for a fully integrated Caribbean Single Market. The foregoing article recommends accelerating the implementation of the CU so as to bring forth the benefits of the regional integration effort. The people needs the Single Market and the Single Market needs the people.

This is the consistent theme – to dive deeper in the waters of an integrated Single Market – in so many previous Go Lean blog-commentaries; see sample here:

Now is the time for all of the Caribbean – the people and governing institutions – to lean-in for the Caribbean integration re-boot, this Caribbean Union Trade Federation. We no longer want to just “muddle through”; now is the time to make this region more prosperous, a better place to live, work and play. 🙂

Download the book Go Lean … Caribbean – now!

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Appendix Reference

Download the full report – Latin America and the Caribbean 2030: Future Scenarios here:

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/Final_LAC2030-Report.pdf