Go Lean…Caribbean

Go Lean Commentary

Life imitates art! Art imitates life!

The forgoing article gives the impression of science fiction: The Matrix movie trilogy or The Terminator movie series. Imagine an industrial development with a heavy concentration of robotic installations. This is the future that is being planned, developed and tested now. The experience of the last 100 years is that those doing the planning, developing and testing for futuristic technologies are the ones that profit most from the economic gains. This has been true for both Japan and Silicon Valley.

The book, Go Lean … Caribbean, extolls this principle that R&D (research and development) activities are necessary to profit from advantages in technology. We want to do R&D here in the Caribbean. This is a mandate for the Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU). This book serves as a roadmap for the introduction and implementation of the CU. This technocracy will assume oversight to optimize the region in the areas of:

(1) economics

(2) security

(3) lean government

This vision of an autonomous maritime eco-system, as depicted in the foregoing article, cannot be considered without a super-national infrastructure for these above 3 areas. The Go Lean roadmap presents the CU’s prime directives, which in total will provide comprehensive solutions for economic incentives, a security apparatus (Naval Authority and Intelligence Gathering), and lean governmental coordination to launch these initiatives.

*** Autonomous cargo vessels could set sail without a crew under the watchful eye of captains in shore-based simulators ***

Military drones already fly frequent missions and civilian operations using unmanned aircraft are coming. Driverless cars are clocking up thousands of test miles. So why not let remote-controlled ships set sail without a crew? Indeed, the maritime industry has started to think about what would be required to launch a latter-day Marie Céleste.

Ships, like aircraft and cars, are increasingly controlled by electronic systems, which makes automation easier. The bridges of some modern vessels are now more likely to contain computer screens and joysticks than engine telegraphs and a giant ship’s wheel. The latest supply ships serving the offshore oil and gas industry in the North Sea, for instance, use dynamic positioning systems which collect data from satellites, gyrocompasses, and wind and motion sensors to automatically hold their position when transferring cargo (also done by remote control) to and from platforms, even in the heaviest of swells.

However, as is also the case with pilotless aircraft and driverless cars, it is not so much a technological challenge that has to be overcome before autonomous ships can set sail, but regulatory and safety concerns. As in the air and on the road, robust control systems will be needed to conform to existing regulations.

The maritime industry is interested in crewless ships for two reasons. The first is safety. Most accidents at sea are the result of human error, just as they are in cars and planes. So, if human operators are replaced by sophisticated sensors and computer systems, autonomous vessels should, in theory, make shipping safer.

The second reason is, of course, cost. It is becoming increasingly difficult to sign up competent crew prepared to spend months away at sea. Moreover, some voyages are likely to get even longer for ships carrying non-urgent cargo. By some accounts, a 30% reduction in speed by a bulk carrier can save around 50% in fuel. This means slower steaming could provide big savings in fuel costs, but it would be at the expense of increased expenditure on crew for these longer voyages, both in wages and for the “hotel” facilities required on board. Removing the crew, though, also removes the need for their accommodation and its associated equipment, like heating and plumbing. And that provides room to carry more cargo.

Ahoy there!

The transition to unmanned ships could take place in steps, says Oskar Levander, head of engineering and technology for the marine division of Rolls-Royce. Crews would be reduced as some functions are moved onshore, such as monitoring machinery. (The engines on jet aircraft are already overseen by ground stations.) This could be followed by some watch-keeping and navigation duties. Experienced crew might be put on board when ships leave or enter port, just as pilots are to navigate. And a small maintenance crew could be kept for the voyage until remote-control systems prove themselves. A fleet of autonomous ships could also sail in convoy with a manned vessel in the lead (as illustrated above).

The onshore control rooms would keep an eye on ships thanks to live data transmitted from vessels, including video and infra-red images. Object-recognition software, combined with radar, would further automate the process. If an alarm was raised the skeleton crew on board could be alerted or the control room take charge, probably from a bridge in a simulator. Rolls-Royce already operates virtual ships’ bridges, with 360º views, for the training of officers and crew. These are realistic enough to make landlubbers feel seasick.

Using onshore control rooms and simulators a team of ten land-based captains could operate 100 or so ships, reckons Mr. Levander. The captains could commute from home for their shifts just as the pilots who fly military drones do. Passenger ships are likely to remain crewed, however. Trained personnel are needed to manage evacuation procedures, and in any case passengers are unlikely to want robots and vending machines attending to their needs.

The slower-sailing bulk carriers could be the first ships to be automated, according to the Maritime Unmanned Navigation through Intelligence in Networks (MUNIN) project, a European Union initiative backed by a number of industrial organisations. Like others, it says the ability of drone ships to detect other vessels and take avoiding action will be crucial, but possible with advanced technology and improved backup systems.

Rules of the sea

With a captain technically in command—even though he is based in an onshore control room—MUNIN thinks the legal and practical challenges of meeting maritime rules could be met. Radio messages from other ships, along with those from coastguards and port authorities, could be automatically routed to the shore captain. Something similar is being proposed for autonomous civil drones, with ground-based pilots responding to communications and air-traffic control instructions as if they were in the cockpit.

In many ways automating a ship should be a lot easier than automating aircraft, Mr. Levander believes. For a start, if something did go wrong, instead of falling out of the sky a drone ship could be set by default to cut its engines and drop anchor without harming anyone. As for piracy, with no crew to be taken hostage it would be much easier for the armed forces to intervene. Of course, more modern pirates might try to hack their way into the controls of an autonomous ship to take command. Which is why encrypted data communication is high on the maritime industry’s list of things to do before ghostly vessels ply the trade routes.

Firstly, the Caribbean Sea is 1,063,000 square miles. This landscape, except for forecasted tropical storms, allows for the perfect testing grounds. The geography of the CU’s 30 member-states thereby includes thousands of islands, (the Bahamas alone advertises 700 islands in their archipelago). The Go Lean roadmap calls for establishing an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) for these seas.

Secondly, the CU has the human capital to engage this type of endeavor. There are many well-trained professionals in the maritime arts and sciences. Plus, this endeavor transmits the “siren call” to youthful aspirants, empowering immigrants and, skilled repatriates. This will grow the labor pool for this industry.

Thirdly, the CU already envisions a massive deployment of ship-building prowess with its incubation of shipyards and related industries (Page 209). Plus, with federally regulated ferry boats, part of the Union Atlantic Turnpike system, the required model (funding/investments/capital) and eco-system will be in place.

Though not written with this particular initiative in mind, the Go Lean roadmap anticipates such opportunities, as pronounced in the Declaration of Interdependence, (Pages 12 & 14):

xvi. Whereas security of our homeland is inextricably linked to prosperity of the homeland, the economic and security interest of the region needs to be aligned under the same governance. Since economic crimes, including piracy and other forms of terrorism, can imperil the functioning of the wheels of commerce for all the citizenry, the accedence of this Federation must equip the security apparatus with the tools and techniques for predictive and proactive interdictions.

xxvii. Whereas the region has endured a spectator status during the Industrial Revolution, we cannot stand on the sidelines of this new economy, the Information Revolution. Rather, the Federation must embrace all the tenets of Internet Communications Technology (ICT) to serve as an equalizing element in competition with the rest of the world. The Federation must bridge the digital divide and promote the community ethos that research/development is valuable and must be promoted and incentivized for adoption.

xxx. Whereas the effects of globalization can be felt in every aspect of Caribbean life, from the acquisition of food and clothing, to the ubiquity of ICT, the region cannot only consume, it is imperative that our lands also produce and add to the international community, even if doing so requires some sacrifice and subsidy.

The CU mission is to implement the complete eco-system to deliver on market opportunities as sampled in the foregoing article. There are many strategies, tactics, implementations and advocacies that will facilitate this readiness; detailed here:

The world is preparing for the change of more autonomous systems to do the heavy-lifting of industrial engagements. A new ethos to prepare for change has now come to the Caribbean. The people of the region are urged to “lean-in” for this change. As described in the book Go Lean … Caribbean, the benefits of this roadmap are too alluring to miss out: emergence of an $800 Billion single market economy, 2.2 million new jobs and relevance on the world scene for R&D.

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