Tag: History

One currency, divergent economies

Posted on May 9, 2014 in Economics, Implementation, Planning, Tactical

Go Lean Commentary

CurrencyThe global financial crisis is not over. Some countries, like in Europe, are doing better while some places are not. This quotation from the foregoing article stands out in significance:

Whereas joblessness has fallen in Germany, from 10.1% to 5.1%, it has soared in Spain, from 11.1% to 25.3%.

The experiences have also been similar in the United States. In 2008, California’s unemployment rate exceeded 10%, while Nebraska enjoyed a 4% rate. Why do some member-states dive, some survive and others thrive? This is the scope of the social science of economics. But it is not a perfect science. A joke lampooning the folly of economists states that “an economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today”.

By: Staff Reporting.

One thing that the European Central Bank (ECB) does not lack is advice on tackling low inflation. This week the OECD added its voice to that of the IMF in April in urging prompt action, calling for a cut in the bank’s main lending rate, from the already low 0.25% reached in November to zero. The ECB’s governing council, meeting on May 8th (after The Economist had gone to press), was not expected to respond to this plea any more than it did to the IMF’s.

The difficulty facing the 24-strong council is highlighted by the euro zone’s differing labour-market trajectories over the past decade (a period during which it expanded from 12 to 18 countries). Whereas joblessness has fallen in Germany, from 10.1% to 5.1%, it has soared in Spain, from 11.1% to 25.3%.

High unemployment has contributed to the onset of deflation in parts of southern Europe. But even in northern countries inflation is low, and though it has risen in the euro zone as a whole from 0.5% in March to 0.7% in April, that is still a long way off the ECB’s target of close to 2%. The main reasons why the council prefers to wait and see are that the recovery is strengthening and bond investors are falling over themselves to lend to southern Europe, even without any further policy stimulus.

The Economist Magazine – Online Edition – May 10th, 2014 http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21601878-one- currency-divergent-economies

Europe’s and the US experience is different than that of the Caribbean. For us, it’s some countries are doing bad, others worse.

The best practice for effective stewards of an economy is the recovery, to bounce back quickly. In the US, the economy lost $11 Trillion in the 2008 Great Recession, but recovered $13.5 Trillion back a few years later, by December 2012 (Page 69).

Europe has the safety net of the economies-of-scale of 508 million people and a GDP of $15 Trillion in 28 member-states in the EU; (the Eurozone subset is 18 states, 333 million people and $13.1 Trillion GDP). The US has 50 states and 320 million people. Shocks and dips can therefore be absorbed and leveraged across the entire region .The EU is still the #1 economy in the world; the US is #2.

The Caribbean has no safety-net, no shock absorption, and no integration. This is the quest of the book Go Lean…Caribbean; it urges the introduction and implementation of the Caribbean Union Trade Federation. The book serves as a roadmap for this goal, with turn-by-turn directions to integrate the 30 member-states of the region and forge an $800 Billion economy.

This is a big idea for the small Caribbean!

At the outset, the roadmap identified an urgent need to contend with, since the Caribbean is still in the throes of the financial crisis (commenced in 2008). This is pronounced in this clause in the opening Declaration of Interdependence (Page 13):

xxv. Whereas the legacy of international democracies had been imperiled due to a global financial crisis, the structure of the Federation must allow for financial stability and assurance of the Federation’s institutions. To mandate the economic vibrancy of the region, monetary and fiscal controls and policies must be incorporated as proactive and reactive measures. These measures must address threats against the financial integrity of the Federation and of the member-states.

The Go Lean roadmap signals change for the region. It introduces new measures, new opportunities and new recoveries. Economies will rise and fall; the recovery is key. Prices will inflate and deflate; as depicted in the foregoing article, there are curative measures to manage these indices. The roadmap calls for the establishment of the allied Caribbean Central Bank (CCB) to manage the monetary affairs of this region. The book describes the breath-and-width of the CCB, modeled in many ways after the ECB.

The foregoing news article is short (3 paragraphs), but like most topics in economics, a quick phrase on the surface connotes a deep field of study underneath. This field of study in this article is inflation and deflation.

CU Blog - One curreny, divergent economies - Photo 2 (1)In economics, inflation is a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. Consequently, inflation reflects a reduction in the purchasing power per unit of money – a loss of real value in the medium of exchange and unit of account within the economy. [a] Deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. Deflation occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0% (a negative inflation rate). [b]

Stewardship of the economy was envisioned and pronounced in the roadmap’s Declaration of Interdependence (Page 13):

xxiv. Whereas a free market economy can be induced and spurred for continuous progress, the Federation must install the controls to better manage aspects of the economy: jobs, inflation, savings rate, investments and other economic principles. Thereby attracting direct foreign investment because of the stability and vibrancy of our economy.

The role of central banking and commercial banking is pivotal to the CU roadmap. The Caribbean Central Bank will manage the monetary policy and reserves of the Caribbean Dollar single currency – shepherding inflation, deflation and foreign currency matters for the region. On the other hand, commercial banks operate with the simultaneous goal of providing credit/holding deposits for the public and maximizing shareholder value for their investors. A conflict of these two goals can endanger the macro-economy. The CU/CCB structure, a cooperative among existing member-state central banks, constitutes a new administration for the regional economy’s monetary and currency concerns.

If there is the need to spur or suppress inflation/deflation, the CCB will have the required tools. As depicted in the foregoing article, this can affect unemployment and the general performance of local economies.

We therefore need good stewards or shepherds.

The CU roadmap drives change among the economic, security and governing engines. These solutions are as new community ethos, strategies, tactics, implementations and advocacies; as follows:

Community Ethos – Money Multiplier Page 22
Community Ethos – Job Multiplier Page 22
Community Ethos – Cooperatives Page 25
Community Ethos – Impact the Greater Good Page 37
Strategy – CU Vision and Mission Page 45
Strategy – Recruiting Foreign Direct Investors Page 48
Tactical – Fostering a Technocracy Page 64
Tactical – $800 Billion Economy – How and When Page 67
Tactical – Recovering from Economic Bubbles Page 69
Tactical – Separation-of-Powers – Central Bank Page 73
Implementation – Assemble Caribbean Central Bank Page 96
Implementation – Ways to Better Manage Debt Page 114
Planning – Ways to Model the EU Page 119
Planning – Lessons Learned from 2008 Page 136
Anecdote – Caribbean Currencies Page 149
Advocacy – Ways to Grow the Economy Page 151
Advocacy – Ways to Create Jobs Page 152
Advocacy – Ways to Control Inflation Page 153
Advocacy – Ways to Better Manage Foreign Exchange Page 154
Advocacy – Reforms for Banking Regulations Page 199
Advocacy – Battles in the War on Poverty Page 222
Advocacy – Ways to Help the Middle Class Page 223
Appendix –  Optimizing Remittances Page 270

We must protect Caribbean value, monetarily and culturally, from past investments and for future prospects.

Shepherding the economy is no simple task. It requires the best practices of skilled technocrats…and a measure of luck. It’s time to get lucky! The CU roadmap equals preparation. That’s how luck is created, by preparation meeting opportunity.

References:

a. Paul H. Walgenbach, Norman E. Dittrich and Ernest I. Hanson, (1973), Financial Accounting, New York: Harcourt Brace Javonovich, Inc. Page 429.

b. Robert J. Barro and Vittorio Grilli (1994), European Macroeconomics, chap. 8, p. 142. ISBN 0-333-57764-7

 Download the Book- Go Lean…Caribbean Now!!!

Share this post:
, , ,

A Lesson in History – America’s War on the Caribbean

Posted on May 6, 2014 in Ethos, Government, Implementation, Locations, Strategy, Tactical

Go Lean Commentary
War on Caribbean 1

“Never kill yourself for someone who is willing to watch you die” – Inspired Expression.

The United States of America fought an actual war, for 10 weeks, in the Caribbean theater in 1898. This was the war against the Spanish Empire, or more commonly known as the Spanish American War.

This is a lesson from an actual history:

These events transpired during the decline of the Spanish Empire. After centuries of vast colonial expansion, at this point, only a few of its vast territories remained. Revolts against Spanish rule had occurred for some years, in the Caribbean territories (Cuba, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico), especially in Cuba. There had been war scares before. But in the late 1890s, American public opinion became agitated by an anti-Spanish propaganda; led by influential journalists such as Joseph Pulitzer and William Randolph Hearst, who used yellow journalism to criticize Spanish administration of Cuba.

Then there was the mysterious sinking of the American battleship USS Maine in Havana harbor on February 15, 1898, which was believed to be and reported as a sabotage attack by Spanish forces. This created political pressure, from Congress and certain industrialists, to push the administration of Republican President William McKinley into a war he had hoped to avoid.[a]

The US Constitution (Article 1 Section 8) forbids that the country can NOT go to war unless provoked. With the sinking of the USS Maine, the government had its constitutional provocation.

Compromise was sought by Spain, but rejected by the United States which sent an ultimatum to Spain demanding it surrender control of Cuba. Consequently war was formally declared, first by Madrid, then by Washington on April 25, 1898.[a]

The ten-week war was fought in both the Caribbean and the Pacific, but the main issue that emerged was that of Cuban independence. American naval power proved decisive, allowing US expeditionary forces to disembark in Cuba against a Spanish garrison already brought to its knees by nationwide Cuban insurgent attacks and further wasted by yellow fever. With two obsolete Spanish squadrons sunk in Santiago de Cuba and Manila Bay and a third, more modern fleet recalled home to protect Spain’s coasts, Madrid sued for peace.[b] As a result, today, Cuba and the Dominican Republic enjoy independence, and Puerto Rico is an American territory, by choice – after many public referendums on the question of independence.

What was the motivation for this war?

Earlier, in 1823, US President James Monroe enunciated the Monroe Doctrine, which stated that the United States would not tolerate further efforts by European governments to colonize land or interfere with states in the Americas; however, Spain’s colony in Cuba was exempted. Before the Civil War Southern interests attempted to have the US purchase Cuba and make it new slave territory. The proposal failed, and subsequently the national attention shifted to the build-up towards the Civil War.[c]

But the “dye had been cast”. Cuba attracted America’s attention; little note was made of the Philippines, Guam, or Puerto Rico. The Spanish Government regarded Cuba as a province of Spain rather than a colony, and depended on it for prestige and trade. It would only be extracted with a war.

In 1976, the US Navy’s own historian (Admiral Hyman G. Rickover’s published book How the Battleship Maine Was Destroyed) declared that the sinking of the USS Maine — the justification for America’s entry into the Spanish-American War — was probably caused by an internal explosion of coal, rather than an attack by Spanish forces.[d]
Sources: See Citations in the Appendix below.

What is the lesson here for the Caribbean and today’s effort to integrate and unify the Caribbean economy? First, there are these principles, that should not be ignored, if we truly want progress/success:

  • In 1918 US Senator Hiram Warren Johnson is purported to have said: “The first casualty when war comes is truth”.
  • “War is a racket” – Smedley Butler, one of the most highly-decorated military men of all time, and the man who prevented a coup against Franklin D. Roosevelt.
  • The Bible declares that: “For there is nothing hidden that will not become manifest” – Luke 8:17

War on Caribbean 2There will be no chance for success in the Caribbean region if this effort goes against American security/foreign policy interest. This is a consistent theme in the book Go Lean … Caribbean, it serves as a roadmap for the introduction and implementation of the Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU); it asserts that the economy of the Caribbean is inextricably linked to the security of the Caribbean. The roadmap therefore proposes an accompanying Security Pact to accompany the CU treaty’s economic empowerment efforts. The plan is to cooperate, collaborate and confer with American counterparts, not oppose them. In fact, two American territories (Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands) are included in this CU roadmap.

To establish a better American-Caribbean partnership, the Go Lean book presents a series of community ethos that must be adapted to forge this change. In addition, there are these specific strategies, tactics, implementation and advocacies to apply:

Community Ethos – new Economic Principles Page 21
Community Ethos – new Security Principles Page 22
Community Ethos – Minority Equalization Page 24
Community Ethos – Lean Operations Page 24
Community Ethos – Cooperatives Page 25
Community Ethos – Manage Reconciliations Page 25
Community Ethos – Impacting the Greater Good Page 34
Strategy – Customers – Public and Governments Page 47
Tactical – Fostering a Technocracy Page 64
Tactical – Homeland Security – Naval Operations Page 75
Tactical – Homeland Security – Militias Page 75
Implementation – Assemble – US Overseas Territory Page 96
Implementation – Foreign Policy Initiatives at Start-up Page 102
Implementation – Security Initiatives at Start-up Page 103
Implementation – Ways to Improve Mail Service Page 108
Implementation – Trade Mission Objectives Page 116
Implementation – Ways to Promote Independence Page 120
Planning – Ways to Model the EU Page 130
Planning – Lessons Learned from the W.I. Federation Page 135
Planning – Lessons from the US Constitution Page 145
Advocacy – Ways to Better Manage the Social Contract Page 170
Advocacy – Ways to Foster Cooperatives Page 176
Advocacy – Ways to Improve Homeland Security Page 180
Advocacy – Ways to Improve Intelligence Gathering Page 182
Advocacy – Ways to Enhance Tourism Page 190
Advocacy – Ways to Market Southern California Page 194
Advocacy – Ways to Preserve Caribbean Heritage Page 218
Advocacy – Ways to Re-boot Cuba Page 236
Advocacy – Ways to Impact the Dominican Republic Page 237
Advocacy – Ways to Impact US Territories Page 244

After this consideration, the conclusions are straight forward:

  • The Caribbean should take the lead for our best self-determination. We must do the heavy-lifting. We can always count on America to pursue what’s in America’s best interest, and this may not always align with Caribbean objectives. So we must take our own lead for our own self-interest.
  • American priorities change with presidential administrations.

Now is the time to lean-in to this roadmap for Caribbean change, as depicted in the book Go Lean…Caribbean. At this time, there is no American agenda or contrarian policy that may dissuade us – but that’s only today. We need to act fast before a new American crisis emerges, (or one is created artificially).

Download the book Go Lean … Caribbean – now!

————-

Appendix References

a. Beede, Benjamin R., ed. (1994), The War of 1898 and U.S. Interventions, 1898–1934, Taylor & Francis, ISBN 978-0-8240-5624-7. An encyclopedia. Pages 120; 148.

b. Dyal, Donald H; Carpenter, Brian B.; Thomas, Mark A. (1996), Historical Dictionary of the Spanish American War, Greenwood Press, ISBN 0-313-28852-6. Pages 108 – 109.

c. Wikipedia treatment on the Spanish American Way. Retrieved May 5, 2014 from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_American_War

d. “The Destruction of USS Maine”. Department of the Navy — Naval History and Heritage Command. Retrieved May 5, 2014 from: http://www.history.navy.mil/faqs/faq71-1.htm

Share this post:
, , , , ,
[Top]

CARICOM Chairman to deliver address on reparations

Posted on April 3, 2014 in Implementation, Planning, Social, Strategy

Go Lean Commentary

Slave ShipThe book Go Lean … Caribbean aligns with one objective depicted in the below news article: to reconcile the flawed economic policies of the past and lean-in for the optimization of the Caribbean future. Beyond this stance, the book deviates from these advocates calling for reparations from the colonial powers that participated in the slave trade, slavery or colonial suppression of the indigenous people.

Reparations stress at its root, a sense of entitlement to other people’s resources. The book, on the other hand, serves as a roadmap for the regional integration of the 42 million people and 30 member states of the Caribbean with the implementation of the Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU). This roadmap advocates the reconciliation of the economic and security engines to grow the region’s economy from $378 Billion (2010) to $800 Billion in a 5 year time span.

NEW YORK, United States, Friday March 28, 2014, CMC – Chairman of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) grouping, Prime Minister Dr. Ralph Gonsalves of St. Vincent and the Grenadines will address an international forum in reparations in the United States next month.

Gonsalves will deliver the feature address at the April 19 forum titled “Revitalizing the Reparations Movement,” organized by the New York-based Institute of the Black World 21st Century (IBW).

IBW described Gonsalves as “one of the leading voices in the Americas demanding that the former European colonial powers pay reparations to Caribbean and South American countries for centuries of African enslavement, native genocide and colonial exploitation”.

The forum will be held in collaboration with the Center for Inner City Studies and the Samuel DeWitt Proctor Conference.

IBW said among the specially invited guests will be Detroit’s congressman John Conyers, Sr., dean of the US Congressional Black Caucus, and sponsor of HR-40, the Reparations Study Bill and Louis Farrakhan, leader of the Nation of Islam.

“A primary goal of the forum is to revitalize the reparations movement in the USA by revisiting the Durban Resolution on the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade, presenting an update on HR-40 and examining the status of CARICOM’s reparations initiative,” IBW said.

“We are delighted and honored to have Prime Minister Gonsalves keynote this critical forum on reparations, a subject of fundamental historical justice that is near and dear to the hearts of Black people around the world,” said IBW’s president Dr. Ron Daniels.

Director of Chicago’s Inner City Studies, Dr. Conrad Worrill, said “our ancestors will be pleased that the reparations movement is being re-energized from the Caribbean islands”.

“In demanding reparations, CARICOM is vindicating the vestiges of the Trans-Atlantic slave trade,” he added.

CARICOM leaders at their inter-sessional summit in St, Vincent and the Grenadines earlier this month discussed the reparation issue and hope to have a meeting with European leaders in June.

The leaders unanimously adopted a 10-point plan that would seek a formal apology for slavery; debt cancellation from former colonizers, such as Britain,

France, Spain and the Netherlands; and reparation payments to repair the persisting “psychological trauma” from the days of plantation slavery.

The Go Lean roadmap commences with this ideal embedded in the Declaration of Interdependence, pronouncing as follows, (Page 10):

As the colonial history of our region was initiated to create economic expansion opportunities for our previous imperial masters, the structures of government instituted in their wake have not fostered the best systems for prosperity of the indigenous people. Despite this past, we thrust our energies only to the future, in adapting the best practices and successes of the societies of these previous imperial masters and recognizing the positive spirit of their intent and vow to learn from their past accomplishments and mistakes so as to optimize the opportunities for our own citizenry to create a more perfect bond of union.

The subject matter of reparation is polarizing, based on assumptions that the Caribbean is comprised of mostly African or Ameri-Indian peoples. While many CARICOM states do possess a majority Black population, this is not so within the larger Caribbean, of whom the CU confederates. There are also large populations of European (White) ethnicities, Indian, and Chinese descendants that should also unite.

— UPDATE (Sep 30, 2015) – See VIDEO in the Appendix regarding the UK Prime Minister’s recent visit to Jamaica —

There is a benefit, however, that can be garnered from compensatory talks with European nations, that of making “Aid” more empowering. The roadmap details an advocacy on the roles and responsibilities of fostering International Aid (Page 115). So while the political leaders of the CARICOM may be exerting energies to “guilt” these Europeans leaders to “pay up”, the CU Trade Federation will instead work to improve trade and re-boot the economic engines of the region.

It is a known fact that most of the resources of the European powers are tied to the strength of their economies, not the reserves gathered up from centuries of exploiting African slaves and their descendants. The country with the largest reserves is the USA; but their gold in Fort Knox is only estimated at $800 Billion, while their economy is $16 Trillion of GDP output … annually. So reparation is not a winning formula; it assumes some abundant stockpile of savings. This is a flawed logic and strategy. On the other hand, the Caribbean needs to create 2.2 million new jobs; this is only possible with the turn-around strategies as detailed in the roadmap of Go Lean … Caribbean.

So as a policy decision for the economic strategies of the region, the Go Lean book and movement recommends:

    Re-boot – Yes!
    Reparations – No!

Download the free e-Book of Go Lean … Caribbean – now!

———

Appendix VIDEO – Slavery Reparations Dominate David Cameron’s Jamaica Visit – https://youtu.be/al453a8rLy8

Published on Sep 30, 2015 – UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s visit to Jamaica was overshadowed by slavery reparation calls, which he rejected. The legacy of slavery is still ever-present for 14 Caribbean countries calling on their former colonial masters to pay billions in reparations.
Share this post:
, ,
[Top]