Category: Strategy

News on the 8’s – Review of Impactful Years … ending in 8 (1918 – 2018)

Go Lean Commentary

The Year 2018 is now over, and what an impactful year it has been. In fact, an analysis over the annals of time shows that all years ending in “8” seems to be impactful, especially in the last 100 years. We are truly able to concur with the American Media (Radio and TV) tagline: “News on the 8’s“.

This review is not just world history, but for specific events-issues-episodes that affected us in the Caribbean.

This is important … for us here and now!

The 2013 book Go Lean…Caribbean – available to download for free – serves as a roadmap for the introduction and implementation of the technocratic Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU), for the elevation of Caribbean society – for all member-states. The book, among its 370 pages, asserts that there are important lessons for the Caribbean region to learn from a consideration of the recent history of the economics, security and governing engines of other times and places. This exercise is analogous to reaping crops from the harvest. In fact the book features formal Lessons from History as follows:

  • West Indies Federation – Page 135
  • Year 2008 – Page 136
  • East Germany – Page 139
  • Detroit – Page 140
  • Indian Reservations – Page 141
  • The American West – Page 142
  • Egypt – Page 143
  • The Bible – Page 144
  • The US Constitution – Page 145
  • Canada’s History – Page 146
  • Caribbean Currencies – Page 149
  • Nuyorican Movement – Page 303
  • European Conquest of the Guianas – Page 307

And now … for consideration of the Year 2018; (the hyperlinks refer to previous blog-commentaries):

  • December: The 41st US President George H.W. Bush dies  The memorial and obituaries reminded the Caribbean, and the world, that reasonable accommodations for Persons with Disabilities is good for all of society.
  • November: The Mid-Term Elections in the US proved the actuality of a bitter lesson in democracy: “Bad things happen when Good people do not participate (vote); the opposite of justice is not injustice; it’s apathy, indifference and inaction”. So many people that did NOT vote in 2016 came out in force for 2018, to take back the direction of their country.
  • October: The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report that we only have 12 years to adopt any Climate Change abatements, otherwise that dire consequences that have been warned and feared will be unavoidable.
  • September: A girl with Caribbean heritage (a meld of Haitian and Japanese), Naomi Osaka, shocks the world and became the US Open Tennis Champion. Yes, we can … produce greatness in our region.
  • August: Caribbean member-state Saint Lucia set in motion to ban Styrofoam and plastics in their sovereign territories therefore setting a model for how the rest of the Caribbean can be responsive to the realities of global pollution. Next up: we must confederate to abate Climate Change.
  • July: The world celebrated 100 Years of Mandela; we, in the Caribbean, did too and should have made more of a Big Deal about it. Mandela taught us all how to co-exist with colonialism bloody past and still work towards a prosperous future with native citizens, expatriates and Direct Foreign Investors alike.
  • June: Regional Tourism stewards declared that there must be regional coordination of their tourism product. This is an affirmation of the confederation quest for the Caribbean Union Trade Federation. Hurricanes always affect one part of the Caribbean region, while sparing the other parts, leaving them “open for business”. But geographic misconceptions are hurting Caribbean economies that are completely unscathed by a hurricane. This actuality cries out for regional stewardship.
  • May: As related and released by a university study, there is “No Love for Puerto Rico in Life or in Death“. The American government apparatus under-counted the true counts of deaths attributed to Hurricane Maria in September 2017. This is just proof positive that PR need to divorce the US and elevate from it’s parasite status and emerge as a protégé. This is the quest of the Go Lean/CU movement.
  • April: a. A Caribbean Political Leader – Senator, the Honorable Dr. Adrian Augier, a St. Lucian Economist – advocated for better outreach to the Diaspora. He lamented how most member-states adopted the lazy approach of just asking for the Diaspora’s money (investments); Dr. Augier, on the other hand, is asking for their outright return.
    b. Cuba’s Raul Castro retires, thus ending the reign of a Castro in the Presidency of Cuba for the first time since 1959; though Raul remains as Chairman of the Communist Party.
  • March: Young students seek to change America by “Marching for their Lives  to change gun laws and protections. This was in response to senseless shootings, one which occurred in Parkland, FL where 17 children were slain by an ex-student. One of the victims was of the Caribbean Diaspora (Jamaica) who’s parents had sought refuge in Florida from economic distress in their homeland.
  • February: The movie Black Panther, casted with many Caribbean actors, proved the prospect of forging change in an African-majority society and transforming the societal engines is a cause than we can conceive, believe and achieve.
  • January: From the “abundance of the heart, the mouth speaks” – this biblical proverb was validated when it was revealed that the US President Donald Trump called Haiti and other Latin American countries “shit holes”. This also vindicates the cause of the Go Lean/CU movement to reform and transform Caribbean society to not be parasites of an unappreciative America.

2018 was an impactful year indeed. This year was also fodder for comedians and satirists alike. See the VIDEO here by the Daily Show:

VIDEO – The Daily Show’s The Yearly Show 2018: Weird Trump, Things You Forgot Happened & 911 Calls – https://youtu.be/nsm9aL-7s8E

The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
Published on Dec 19, 2018 – In The Daily Show’s final show of the year, the team looks back on how weird Donald Trump was in 2018, the stories that everyone has forgotten about and all the white people who couldn’t call 911 enough.

Subscribe to The Daily Show: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwWh…

About The Daily Show: Trevor Noah and The World’s Fakest News Team tackle the biggest stories in news, politics and pop culture. The Daily Show with Trevor Noah airs weeknights at 11/10c on Comedy Central.

Despite the adult humor, this VIDEO was spot-on for the laughable premise of anyone expecting American leadership for global (and Caribbean) affairs. For the last 100 years, the years ending in “8” – 2018, 2008, 1998 … 1918 – have been the most impactful in modern history. Just consider the following subjective analysis; consider the News on the 8’s for the other years, here as follows:

  • 2008 – Great Recession – This economic disaster imperiled the world’s economy; what’s worse is that it is still imperiling the Caribbean region even today, despite recoveries elsewhere. Why so long for us in the Caribbean to elevate our economic landscape? We are not “too big to fail” but rather “Too Small to Thrive“.
  • 1998 – Clinton Impeachment – This American-only drama had a far reaching arch on the Caribbean: The Haitian eco-system resented the role of the Clinton Foundation in Haiti’s post-2010 Earthquake recovery-rebuild. The Haitian Diaspora, and many others disillusioned with the Clinton brand, took out their angst on presidential candidate Hillary Clinton … resulting in a win for the candidate Donald Trump, an anti-Caribbean actor.
  • 1988 – George Bush Election was an affirmation for the continuation of policies by Ronald Reagan. These policies incentivized Caribbean citizens, especially the professional classes, to emigrate away from the homeland to US soil.
  • 1978 – Jonestown, Guyana – This tragedy took place right here in the Caribbean member-state of Guyana. This evil act is on us! Have we learned? Have we reformed and transformed? Do we still tolerate a Climate of Hate? Are we overly protective of orthodoxy?
  • 1968 – Olympics’ Proudest Moment & Movement – The cause for Human Rights had it biggest impact at the 1968 Mexico City Olympics. The winners of the 200 meters Track-and-Field race – including the Bronze-medal winner with Caribbean (Cuban) roots, John Carlos – shocked the world by standing in solidarity with minority civil rights around the world.
  • 1958 – West Indies Federation – This attempt at integration had the potential to consolidate and confederate all the Anglo-Caribbean under a Single Market, single currency and a unified government. But despite the good intentions, this construct reflected a deficient foundation; the Federation failed 4 years later, though some remnants persist even today: i.e. BWI Airlines, University of the West Indies and the West Indies Cricket Federation.
  • 1948 – a. United Nations Human Rights Declaration  – The Human Rights standard we take for granted now was not always en vogue. It started in this year as a Lesson Learn from World War II.
    b. Windrush Departure – This London-bound ship started the bad trend of emigration from the Caribbean homeland.
  • 1938 – a. Start of Jewish Persecution in Nazi Germany; this is the lesson for where Climate of Hate leads a society.
    b. Joe Louis Wins Heavyweight Championship over a German, Nazi-backed boxer. This is the forerunner for Muhammad Ali and Boxing’s potential to shook the world.
  • 1928 – a. Birth of Mickey Mouse and the start of the Disney Empire Dream. The Black-n-White cartoon film Steamboat Willie was the start of the media enterprise. The current Orlando resort is a model for us in the Caribbean for Self-Governing Entities.
    b. Penicillin – as the start of antibiotics; this meant the end to mortality for many tropical diseases; still evolving today.
  • 1918 – End of WW I – The Great War was the start of the End of Colonialism. At the time of this global conflict the European powers over the Caribbean included Denmark, who subsequently ceded the Virgin Islands to the US.

This commentary serves as a review of the highlights of 2018, the same as was conducted for 2017 with 2017 Review – Mr. Trump shows the ‘Wrong Way’ and for 2016 with  How to make sense of 2016. But the purpose of these commentaries is not just to highlight the news, but rather to highlight the need for a new Caribbean regime, the Go Lean roadmap for the CU Trade Federation. Accepting the philosophical principle that “a crisis is a terrible thing to waste“, then there is a strong motivation to reboot, reform and transform the Caribbean eco-systems.

This is the quest of the Go Lean/CU roadmap; it features these 3 prime directives:

  • Optimization of the economic engines in order to grow the regional economy to $800 Billion & create 2.2 million new jobs.
  • Establishment of a security apparatus to ensure public safety and protect the resultant economic engines.
  • Improve Caribbean governance to support these engines, including a separation-of-powers between the member-states and CU federal agencies.

The Go Lean book stresses that reforming and transforming the Caribbean societal engines must be a regional pursuit. This was an early motivation for the roadmap, as pronounced in the opening Declaration of Interdependence (Pages 12 – 13):

xi. Whereas all men are entitled to the benefits of good governance in a free society, “new guards” must be enacted to dissuade the emergence of incompetence, corruption, nepotism and cronyism at the peril of the people’s best interest. The Federation must guarantee the executions of a social contract between government and the governed.

xxxiii. Whereas lessons can be learned and applied from the study of the recent history of other societies, the Federation must formalize statutes and organizational dimensions to avoid the pitfalls of communities like East Germany, Detroit, Indian (Native American) Reservations, Egypt and the previous West Indies Federation. On the other hand, the Federation must also implement the good examples learned from developments/communities like New York City, Germany, Japan, Canada, the old American West and tenants of the US Constitution.

The Go Lean book provides the turn-by-turn instructions on “how” to adopt new community ethos, plus the strategies, tactics, implementations and advocacies to execute so as to reboot, reform and transform the societal engines of Caribbean society. One advocacy on Page 131 is particular is entitled 10 Ways to Make the Caribbean Better. The rationale for this advocacy is summarized well in the first tactic (Way), as follows:

Lean-in for the Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU).
This treaty allows for the unification of the region into a single market, thereby expanding to an economy of 30 countries, 42 million people and GDP of over $800 Billion (based on 2010) figures. The mandate of the CU, (despite the references to advanced technical concepts of economic empowerment, homeland security and emergency management), is simply to make the Caribbean a better place to: a). Live b). Work and c). Play.

This triple threat impacts daily Caribbean life and ultimately, our children’s future.

Yes, we can learn form the historic “8” years and from this year then make our homeland a better place to live, work and play. This quest is conceivable, believable and achievable. 🙂

Download the free e-book of Go Lean … Caribbean – now!

Sign the petition to lean-in for this roadmap for the Caribbean Union Trade Federation.

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5 Years Later – Technology: Caribbean countries fully on board

Go Lean Commentary

You will be assimilated! Strength is irrelevant. Resistance is futile. …
We will add your biological and technological distinctiveness to our own.– Movie Quote: Star Trek – The Next Generation (TV Series).

Change happens … ready or not here it comes. Agents of Change will overrun you and transform you into its mold.

In a previous Go Lean commentary from May 12, 2018, this commentary confessed this actuality:

Today, it is clear that mainstream society has been assimilated by the counter-culture revolution with previously debated New Morals. Some people even claim that this New Morality is the same Old Immorality. For instance, consider recreational drugs, marijuana in particular; counter-culturists have always “pushed” for the freedom of marijuana use; … Despite all the efforts to outlaw it, authority figures are now starting to just accept, tolerate and legitimize its usage.

Technology has also pounced on the modern world, the Caribbean included; what started as a counter-culture revolution – nerds, geeks and techies – has become mainstream and normal. People today are walking around with a computer in their pockets (smart-phones) that far exceeds Big Mainframe systems (Big Iron) from 30 years ago; think 1 terabyte of memory-storage; 3.5 GigaHertz processor chips; global communication networks with interconnected devices around the world.

This change is not all bad! The whole world – the people, media and information – is now accessible at our finger tips!

There are only a few small groupings of people even attempting to “live off the grid”. Everyone else has fully embraced the grid and is living their life in kind – waiting for the next technological advances – they have been assimilated.

There used to be a Caribbean exception, Cuba! Due to the 1959 Revolution, Cuba had previously rejected Western technology advances; choosing to freeze their technological consumption at 1959.

But based of the summary of this news article, that actuality is no more:

Title: Communist-run Cuba starts rolling out internet on mobile phones
By:
Sarah Marsh

HAVANA (Reuters) – Communist-run Cuba has started providing internet on the mobile phones of select users as it aims to roll out the service nationwide by year-end, in a further step toward opening one of the Western Hemisphere’s least connected countries.

Journalists at state-run news outlets were among the first this year to get mobile internet, provided by Cuba’s telecoms monopoly, as part of a wider campaign for greater internet access that new President Miguel Diaz-Canel has said should boost the economy and help Cubans defend their revolution.

Analysts said broader web access will also ultimately weaken the government’s control of what information reaches people in the one-party island state that has a monopoly on the media. Cuba frowns on public dissent and blocks access to dissident websites.

“It’s been a radical change,” said Yuris Norido, 39, who reports for several state-run news websites and the television. “I can now update on the news from wherever I am, including where the news is taking place.”

Certain customers, including companies and embassies, have also been able to buy mobile data plans since December, according to the website of Cuban telecoms monopoly ETECSA, which has not broadly publicized the move.

ETECSA has said it will expand mobile internet to all its 5 million mobile phone customers, nearly half of Cuba’s population, by the end of this year. ETECSA did not reply to a request for more details for this story.

Whether because of a lack of cash, a long-running U.S. trade embargo or concerns about the flow of information, Cuba has lagged behind in web access. Until 2013, internet was largely only available to the public at tourist hotels in Cuba.

But the government has since then made increasing connectivity a priority, introducing cybercafes and outdoor Wi-Fi hotspots and slowly starting to hook up homes to the web.

Long before he took office from Raul Castro in April, 58-year-old Diaz-Canel championed the cause.

“We need to be able to put the content of the revolution online,” he told parliament last July as vice president, adding that Cubans could thus “counter the avalanche of pseudo-cultural, banal and vulgar content.”

Cuba could use subsidies to encourage the use of government-sponsored applications, analysts said. Last month, ETECSA launched a free Cuba-only messaging application, Todus, while Cuba’s own intranet with a handful of government-approved sites and email is much cheaper to access than the wider internet.

In a 2015 document about its internet strategy that leaked, the Cuban government said it aimed to connect at least half of homes by 2020 and 60 percent of phones.

But many Cubans are skeptical. ETECSA President Mayra Arevich told state-run media in December it had connected just 11,000 homes last year.

“I’ve been many times to the ETECSA shop to ask if they can give us home access,” said Yuneisy Galindo, 28, at a Wi-Fi hotspot on one of Havana’s thoroughfares. “But they tell us they still aren’t ready and will call us.”

Most mobile phone owners have smartphones, although Cuba is only now installing 3G technology, even as most of Latin America has moved onto 4G, with 5G in its final testing phase.

“This rollout will expand slowly at first and then more quickly, if the government is increasingly confident that it can control any political fallout,” said Cuba expert Ted Henken at Baruch College in the United States.

The price could prove the biggest restriction for many, though. Hotspots currently charge $1 an hour, compared with an average state monthly wage of $30.

It was not clear what most Cubans will pay for mobile internet, but ETECSA is charging companies and embassies $45 a month for four gigabytes.

Additional reporting by Nelson Acosta, Editing by Rosalba O’Brien

Source: Reuters News Service – Posted July 16, 2018; retrieved December 20, 2018 from: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-internet/communist-run-cuba-starts-rolling-out-internet-on-mobile-phones-idUSKBN1K62U7

The conclusion from this commentary is that the Caribbean member-states are now all ready to embrace this Technology Agent of Change confronting our world. The 2013 book Go Lean…Caribbean – available to download for free – prepared the region for this eventuality. The book serves as a roadmap for the introduction and implementation of the technocratic Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU), for the elevation of Caribbean society – for all member-states. The book identified these 4 Agents of Change – Globalization, Climate Change, Technology and the Aging Diaspora – and declared that we were failing to compete because of our inability to adopt and thrive in this changed environment.

Adopt, compete and thrive …

While it has been 5 years since the publication of the Go Lean book, the pronouncements are more important now than before. It was asserted that the entire Caribbean region – all 30 member-states, Cuba included – must unite in order to adopt, compete and thrive in this new technological world. In the book’s opening, and early motivation, there was this Declaration of Interdependence that, among other things, proclaimed (Page 14) the following:

xxx. Whereas the effects of globalization can be felt in every aspect of Caribbean life, from the acquisition of food and clothing, to the ubiquity of ICT, the region cannot only consume, it is imperative that our lands also produce and add to the international community, even if doing so requires some sacrifice and subsidy.

The Go Lean book declares that our lives and livelihoods are at stake. Our societal engines – jobs, education, healthcare, governance, etc. – all depend on how well we adopt, compete and thrive with today’s technology. So the Go Lean/CU roadmap presents these 3 prime directives:

  • Optimization of the economic engines in order to grow the regional economy to $800 Billion & create 2.2 million new jobs.
  • Establishment of a security apparatus to ensure public safety and protect the resultant economic engines.
  • Improve Caribbean governance to support these engines, including a separation-of-powers between the member-states and CU federal agencies.

The Go Lean book provides 370-pages of turn-by-turn instructions on “how” to adopt new community ethos, plus the strategies, tactics, implementations and advocacies to execute so as to reboot, reform and transform the societal engines of Caribbean society.

Community ethos; what is community ethos? The book defines it as “the fundamental character or spirit of a culture; the underlying sentiment that informs the beliefs, customs, or practices of a group or society”.

The Go Lean book presents new community ethos that must be adopted in order to compete and thrive with the world with regards to technology:

  • Lean Operations
  • Return on Investments
  • A quest to respect and Promote Intellectual Property
  • A quest to Impact Research & Development
  • A quest to Bridge the Digital Divide

In addition to the ethos, one notable advocacy that is presented, on Page 197, is entitled: 10 Ways to Foster Technology. Notice the summaries, plans, excerpts and headlines from the book here:

1 Lean-in for the Treaty for a Caribbean Single Market
This treaty allows for the unification of the region into one market of 42 million people, across 30 member-states and an economic impact for a GDP of over $800 Billion (circa 2010). The CU will lead the industry efforts to create economies-of-scale to deploy technological investments, (such as Libraries and other Community Technology Centers), and generate justifiable benefits. The CU governance also provides the intellectual property protections such as patents and copyrights, and ensures their enforcement both locally and abroad. The technology initiatives are designed to include everyone in the region: the technically-savvy and the technically-ignorant. In addition to the CU providing community education services like the CTC’s, the CU incentivizes Not-For-Profit agencies, NGOs and Foundations to help the community efforts.
2 e-Learning Facilities and Industries
3 STEM Charter Schools and STEM Teacher Recognitions
4 e-Government Services
The CU Trade Federation will provide government services. Where ever possible, these services will be delivered with the embrace of Internet and Communications Technologies (ICT). Therefore, Caribbean citizens can request and interact with CU government services via web & phone portals (contact centers), and when personal visits are mandated, service level agreements (SLA) will be implemented to set expectations for quality and timely response.
5 Public Access Wi-Fi
Regional ISP’s will be regulated at the federal level, and encourage to provided free Wi-Fi to the public. Successful business models can be facilitated thru ads-supported browsers and videos.
6 Incubators, Venture Capitalists Funds and IPO’s
7 Tax Credits for Technological Investments
8 Technology Expositions
9 Centers of Excellence
10 Whistleblower Protections

The Go Lean book was written 5 years ago as a 5 Year Plan to reform and transform the Caribbean region. Had the plan been adopted by the regional stakeholders then, the Agents of Change would have been better addressed all the while. But instead, this plan, or roadmap, to introduce and implement the Caribbean Union Trade Federation is still reeling; still not even started.

The embrace of technology must not be optional. This technology factor is analogous to a vessel/ship that can take “us” to a better destination.

Adopting, thriving and competing with technology advances is the answer for reforming and transforming the Caribbean. In these 5 short years since the publication of the Go Lean book, technology has escalated the region further and now all the member-states are fully “on board” this vessel for change, empowerment and improvement.

While the other Agents of Change are equally import, this Technology cause is perhaps the one Agent of Change that we have made the most progress with. This disposition is presented in the other commentaries in this series, cataloged here:

  1. 5 Years Later: New Post Office Eco-system – Globalization issues ‘loud and clear’ now.
  2. 5 Years Later: Climate Change – Coming so fast, so furious.
  3. 5 Years Later: Technology – Caribbean fully on board.
  4. 5 Years Later: Aging Diaspora – Finding Home … anywhere.

At least now we have a more receptive environment for the embrace of the Go Lean roadmap in Cuba, than we did 5 years ago. Back then, Fidel Castro, though retired as President, still ruled as the Chairman of the Communist Party; his brother Raul ruled as President. Today, Fidel is dead; and Raul is retired – though now the Chairman of the Party. Cuba is now ready for change. The foregoing news article has conveyed that Cuba is ready for mobile Internet and Communications Technologies.

This is the start that we need. This allow us the opportunity to adopt, compete and thrive. Let’s lean-in to the Go Lean/CU roadmap now. We have more to do; more to accomplish; more people to impact; more jobs to create; and more lives to improve.

At 5 years in, though its a late start, it is still not too late to succeed in making our homeland a better place to live, work and play.  🙂

Download the free e-book of Go Lean … Caribbean – now!

Sign the petition to lean-in for this roadmap for the Caribbean Union Trade Federation.

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5 Years Later – Climate Change: Coming so fast, so furious

Go Lean Commentary

A little less conversation, a little more action – Elvis Presley song

3 years ago – Paris COP21 – the world came together and devised a plan to tackle the global threat of Climate Change. This year, many of the same players came back together to implement the actions.

So we went from “planning the plan” to now “planning the action”.

This is a slow-motion response to a fast-moving threat.

This commentary is the second of a 4-part series – 2 of 4 – from the movement behind the Go Lean book in consideration of the 5 year anniversary of the book’s publication. The theme on these 4 submissions is “5 Years Later and what is the condition now“. The focus here is on the Agents of Change that the book identified: Globalization, Climate Change, Technology and the Aging Diaspora.

The first entry in this series asked the question: “Have the problems lessened, or have they intensified?

The answer is so emphatic! Climate Change has been all the rage in these 5 short years. The fast-and-furious threat is more than just academic; this is real-life and real-bad; especially for us in the Caribbean.

The other commentaries in the series are cataloged as follows:

  1. 5 Years Later: New Post Office Eco-system – Globalization issues ‘loud and clear’ now.
  2. 5 Years Later: Climate Change – Coming so fast, so furious.
  3. 5 Years Later: Technology – Caribbean fully on board.
  4. 5 Years Later: Aging Diaspora – Finding Home … anywhere.

The Go Lean book was written 5 years ago as a 5 Year Plan to reform and transform the Caribbean region. Had the plan been adopted by the regional stakeholders, then the Agents of Change would have been better addressed. The plan, or roadmap, to introduce and implement the Caribbean Union Trade Federation is still rearing to start; and while we cannot single-handedly solve Climate Change, we can better prepare the region for the heavy-lifting involved. The book describes the community ethos to adopt plus the many strategies, tactics and implementation that need to be executed.

After the 2013 publication of the Go Lean book, many countries came together for COP21 (December 2015), also known as the Paris Accords. As alluded to above, this year’s follow-up, Katowice (Poland) 2018 had a few less participants for this “put speech into action” plan. See the news article about COP24 here:

News Title: Nations agree on rules for implementing Paris climate agreement
Sub-title: Nations dragged a deal over the line Saturday to implement the landmark 2015 Paris climate treaty after marathon UN talks that failed to match the ambition the world’s most vulnerable countries need to avert dangerous global warming.

Katowice, Poland – Delegates from nearly 200 states finalised a common rule book designed to deliver the Paris goals of limiting global temperature rises to well below two degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit).

“Putting together the Paris agreement work programme is a big responsibility,” said COP24 president Michal Kurtyka as he gavelled through the manual following the talks in Poland that ran deep into overtime.

“It has been a long road. We did our best to leave no-one behind.”

But environmental groups said the package agreed in the Polish mining city of Katowice lacked the bold ambition needed to protect states already dealing with devastating floods, droughts and extreme weather made worse by climate change.

“We continue to witness an irresponsible divide between the vulnerable island states and impoverished countries pitted against those who would block climate action or who are immorally failing to act fast enough,” executive director of Greenpeace Jennifer Morgan said.

The final decision text was repeatedly delayed as negotiators sought guidelines that are effective in warding off the worst threats posed by our heating planet while protecting the economies of rich and poor nations alike.

“Without a clear rulebook, we won’t see how countries are tracking, whether they are actually doing what they say they are doing,” Canada’s Environment Minister Catherine McKenna told AFP.

At their heart, negotiations were about how each nation funds action to mitigate and adapt to climate change, as well as how those actions are reported.

Developing nations wanted more clarity from richer ones over how the future climate fight will be funded and pushed for so-called “loss and damage” measures.

This would see richer countries giving money now to help deal with the effects of climate change many vulnerable states are already experiencing.

Another contentious issue was the integrity of carbon markets, looking ahead to the day when the patchwork of distinct exchanges — in China, the Europe Union, parts of the United States — may be joined up in a global system.

“To tap that potential, you have to get the rules right,” said Alex Hanafi, lead counsel for the Environmental Defense Fund in the United States.

“One of those key rules — which is the bedrock of carbon markets — is no double counting of emissions reductions.”

The Paris Agreement calls for setting up a mechanism to guard against practices that could undermine such a market, but finding a solution has proved so problematic that the debate has been kicked down the road to next year.

‘System needs to change’

One veteran observer told AFP Poland’s presidency at COP24 had left many countries out of the process and presented at-risk nations with a “take it or leave it” deal.

Progress had “been held up by Brazil, when it should have been held up by the small islands. It’s tragic.”

One of the largest disappointments for countries of all wealths and sizes was the lack of ambition to reduce emissions shown in the final COP24 text.

Most nations wanted the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to form a key part of future planning.

It highlighted the need for carbon pollution to be slashed to nearly half by 2030 in order to hit the 1.5C target.

But the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kuwait objected, leading to watered-down wording.

The final statement from the Polish COP24 presidency welcomed “the timely conclusion” of the report and invited “parties to make use of it” — hardly the ringing endorsement many nations had called for.

“There’s been a shocking lack of response to the 1.5 report,” Morgan told AFP. “You can’t come together and say you can’t do more!”

With UN talks well into their third decade sputtering on as emissions rise remorselessly, activists have stepped up grassroots campaigns of civil disobedience to speed up action on climate.

“We are not a one-off protest, we are a rebellion,” a spokesman for the Extinction Rebellion movement, which disrupted at least one ministerial event at the COP, told AFP.

“We are organising for repeated disruption, and we are targeting our governments, calling for the system change needed to deal with the crisis that we are facing.”

Source: AFP – France24 News Service – Posted December 16, 2018; retrieved December 18, 2018 from: https://www.france24.com/en/20181215-cop24-poland-climate-summit-deal-paris-climate-agreement-negotiations-un-environment

—————-

VIDEO # 1 – Nations agree on rules for implementing Paris climate agreement – https://youtu.be/SBUZS3cl2X0

FRANCE 24 English
Published on Dec 17, 2018 – Nations dragged a deal over the line Saturday to implement the landmark 2015 Paris climate treaty after marathon UN talks that failed to match the ambition the world’s most vulnerable countries need to avert dangerous global warming.

Visit our website: http://www.france24.com

FRANCE 24 live news stream: all the latest news 24/7 http://f24.my/YTliveEN

———————

VIDEO # 2 – UN climate talks: ‘A transition to a greener economy is possible’ – https://youtu.be/qqbQ1hyWc_Y

FRANCE 24 English
Uploaded on Dec 15, 2018

Subscribe to France 24 now: http://f24.my/youtubeEN

FRANCE 24 live news stream: all the latest news 24/7 http://f24.my/YTliveEN

Visit our website: http://www.france24.com

One notable absentee from Katowice has been the United States of America. This is due to the sad fact that the “Leader of the Free World” – a moniker assigned to the US President – is a Climate Change denier. Donald Trump campaigned on his denial and has manifested his dismay with subsequent actions. His blatant disregard was previously detailed in a prior Go Lean commentary from June 1, 2017, as follows:

Its June 1st, the start of the Hurricane season. According to Weather Authorities, it is going to be a tumultuous season, maybe even more destructive than last year….

Thanks Climate Change.

What hope is there to abate the threats from Climate Change?

Thanks to the Paris Accord, there is now hope; (we remember the effectiveness of the accord to abate “Acid Rain”).

But wait! The American President – Donald Trump – announces that he is withdrawing the United States from the Paris Accord. WTH?!?!

The Caribbean status quo is unsustainable under the real threats of Climate Change. The region must reboot, reform and transform. We must do the heavy-lifting ourselves; we cannot expect relief and refuge from others, like the American Super-Power. We must find and “sail” under our own power. 🙂

The Caribbean is more on the frontlines of Climate Change distress than the US – think hurricanes. We do not have the luxury to deny, defer and dispute. We must “batten down the hatches” and prepare for the worst. (Many claim this is also the disposition of many American destinations, think California forest fires). So we must take the lead ourselves for our own relief!

The Caribbean frontlines have been depicted in many previous Go Lean blog-commentaries. Consider the sample – as follows – highlighting some of the many Climate Change-infused storms that have impacted our region and others over the short timeframe – 5 years – since the publication of the Go Lean book:

https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=15996 Good Governance: Stepping Up in an Emergency
October 2018 Trinidad heavy rains – not associated with a hurricane.
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=14925 ‘Climate Change’ Reality!? Numbers Don’t Lie
There is no longer any doubt, the Numbers don’t lie: the earth has had 400 straight warmer-than-average months.
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=13391 After Maria, Failed-State Indicators: Destruction and Defection
Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico and other Caribbean islands. 1 year and a half later, recovery is still slow and frustrating. Islands like Dominica, are still struggling to recover; Ross University fled there to go to Barbados.
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=12996 After Irma, Failed-State Indicators: Destruction and Defection 
Hurricane Irma devastated Caribbean islands, like Saint Martin.
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=12977 After Irma, Barbuda Becomes a ‘Ghost Town’
Climate Change threats are real for the twin-island nation of Antigua and Barbuda. Barbuda is no more, after Hurricane Irma.
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=12924 Hurricane Categories – The Science
Category 5 Hurricanes – Once rare; now normal and common.
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=12879 Disaster Preparation: ‘Rinse and Repeat’
Hurricane Harvey proved that even the advanced democracy of the USA is not ready.
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=12834 Hurricane Andrew – 25 Years of Hoopla
Climate Change disasters are not new; 1992 storm was an eye-opener.
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=7896 The Logistics of Disaster Relief
Preparing for the worst” means being more efficient and technocratic.
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=7449 ‘Crap Happens’ – So What Now?
Hurricane Wilma brought chaos to this city’s economic engines in 2004.
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=6189 A Lesson in History – ‘Katrina’ is helping today’s crises
There are many lessons learned from this 2005 American disaster.
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=4741 Vanuatu and TuvaluInadequate response to human suffering
Lessons learned from these small Pacific Islands climate failures.

So it has been 5 years since the publication of the Go Lean book. Climate Change was identified as an Agent of Change that the region was struggling with and losing. Since then, conditions have worsened. The book asserts that the entire region must unite in order to “hope for the best and prepare for the worst”. The “hope” is really a call to action, that the regional neighbors would confederate and join in to the global campaign of mitigating and abating Climate Change. This aligns with the first pronouncement (Page 11) of the opening Declaration of Interdependence:

i. Whereas the earth’s climate has undeniably changed resulting in more severe tropical weather storms, it is necessary to prepare to insure the safety and security of life, property and systems of commerce in our geographical region. As nature recognizes no borders in the target of its destruction, we also must set aside border considerations in the preparation and response to these weather challenges.

The Go Lean book – a roadmap for the introduction and implementation of the technocratic Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU) – presents a 370-page roadmap for re-booting the economic, security and governmental institutions of the 30 member-states in the Caribbean region, especially in light of the realities of Climate Change. While this is a global battle, we, the Caribbean member-states, are on the frontlines, so we must be doubly prepared for the surety of destruction from this threat. We must do our share and “Go Green” to arrest our own carbon footprint. We must not be hypocritical as we call on the Big Polluting nations to reform – we must reform ourselves, so as to have moral authority.

As detailed in a previous blog-commentary, the dire effects of Climate Change may be irreversible after the next 12 years, if we do not work to abate this disaster. So we must fight!

This is an inconvenient truth: We must fight like our lives depend on it. A product of these COP24 Katowice Accords, is now definitive plans and rules for implementing abatements around the world; carbon footprints must be reduced … globally, now!

A change has now come to the Caribbean region. This is Climate Change and it is not a good thing. Now is the time for a permanent union to provide efficient stewardship for our economic, security and governing engines. All regional stakeholders – the people and governing institutions – are hereby urged to lean-in to the empowerments described in the book Go Lean … Caribbean. Yes, we can … make our region, these islands and coastal states, better places to live, work and play.

There is the successful track record of abating environment pollution: remember Acid Rain in the 1990’s. So despite the doom and gloom, mitigation and abatement of Climate Change is conceivable, believable and achievable. 🙂

Sign the petition to lean-in for this roadmap for the Caribbean Union Trade Federation. 

Download the free e-book of Go Lean … Caribbean – now!

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When ‘Elizabeth’ Dies …

Go Lean Commentary

Long Live the Queen!

But at her ripe age of 94, the ‘long” part needs a realistic assessment. At some point, soon, that dreaded day will come, Queen Elizabeth II will die. This is an important consideration as she is the monarch of the United Kingdom and Head of State, Head of the Commonwealth for 18 of the 30 Caribbean member-states. So these entities and institutions need this consideration.

  • What will happen?
  • What should happen?
  • What change will this death bring to the Caribbean?
  • What change – the ideal – that should be considered?

The truth of the matter is  that there is a formal comprehensive plan in London for this eventuality; (there should be one in the Caribbean as well). See the details of this British plan in this VIDEO here:

VIDEO – What Happens When The Queen Dies | Vanity Fair – https://youtu.be/v61JI6h423E

Vanity Fair
Published on Aug 16, 2018 – After nearly 66 years on the throne, Queen Elizabeth II is the longest reigning monarch in British history and has been a constant and calming force amidst the fast-paced changes their country has faced, making it even more inconceivable to think about what happens when she dies.
Since Buckingham Palace doesn’t shy away from procedure, it’s no surprise there’s already a comprehensive plan in place for what happens after she passes, known as Operation London Bridge. On the day Queen Elizabeth II dies, her death will elicit a comprehensive plan that has been in place since the 1960s. What will happen when Her Majesty’s reign comes to an end and how will Britain mourn the loss? Here is what we know so far.

Now is the time to ask ourselves: should the British neo-colonial status continue? Is it time to consider a formal exit?

While there is love for the current British monarch – Queen Elizabeth – her death should be viewed as a checkpoint in our sovereignty considerations.

The British eco-system is not working for all non-British-Isles stakeholders; consider Brexit; this is a nationalistic expression of “Britain First”.

With that reality, could their be any hope for maintaining the status quo in the Overseas Territories?

It is London’s claim that “they” will sustain their commitments and priorities. See a related Press Release here:

Overseas Territories meet in London for annual Joint Ministerial Council
Lord Tariq Ahmad of Wimbledon, Foreign Office Minister of State for the Overseas Territories, hosted political leaders from UK Overseas Territories on 4-5 December 2018. The discussions covered a range of topics, including Brexit, trade and investment, financial services, safeguarding, disaster management and constitutional issues.

See the remaining of the article at the source here: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/overseas-territories-meet-in-london-for-annual-joint-ministerial-council

Can we truly expect the UK Territories status quo to continue? This is a shocking concern, worthy of skepticism!

Wasn’t a similar commitment-promise made to the EU?

The movement behind the book Go Lean…Caribbean – available to download for free – asserts that it is past-time for the Caribbean member-states to “throw off the shackles of colonialism” – whichever European power – we must now reform and transform our society to better deliver, ourselves, for the future for our citizens.

No more parasitical dependence! We must be protégés rather than parasites.

But, these European territories (colonies) in our region are too small to effect change alone; therefore there is the need to convene, collaborate and confederate as regional neighbors. Of the total (30 member-states), there are 18 that reflect some British neo-colonial stance (overseas territory or commonwealth member). In addition there are 6 direct territories (Aruba and the 5 formerly branded Netherlands Antilles) with active governance from the Kingdom of the Netherlands, 4 embedded in the Republic of France, and 2 American territories.

Some of these lands are small territories, i.e. Anguilla, Montserrat and St. Barthélemy have less than 10,000 people in each island. Rather than these standing alone as a small island, these territories need to stand united with their regional brothers. Yes, the Go Lean book stresses that reforming and transforming the Caribbean societal engines must be a regional pursuit – for all 30 member-states. This was an early motivation for the roadmap, as pronounced in the opening Declaration of Interdependence (Pages 12 – 13):

viii. Whereas the population size is too small to foster good negotiations for products and commodities from international vendors, the Federation must allow the unification of the region as one purchasing agent, thereby garnering better terms and discounts.

xi. Whereas all men are entitled to the benefits of good governance in a free society, “new guards” must be enacted to dissuade the emergence of incompetence, corruption, nepotism and cronyism at the peril of the people’s best interest. The Federation must guarantee the executions of a social contract between government and the governed.

xxiii. Whereas many countries in our region are dependent Overseas Territory of imperial powers, the systems of governance can be instituted on a regional and local basis, rather than requiring oversight or accountability from distant masters far removed from their subjects of administration. The Federation must facilitate success in autonomous rule by sharing tools, systems and teamwork within the geographical region.

The proposed regional pursuit is a new confederation, the Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU). The Go Lean book serves as a roadmap for the introduction and implementation of this technocratic CU Trade Federation, for the elevation of Caribbean society – for all member-states. This CU/Go Lean roadmap has these 3 prime directives:

  • Optimization of the economic engines in order to grow the regional economy to $800 Billion and create 2.2 million new jobs.
  • Establishment of a security apparatus to ensure public safety and protect the resultant economic engines.
  • Improve Caribbean governance to support these engines, including a separation-of-powers between the member-states and CU federal agencies.

The Go Lean book provides 370-pages of turn-by-turn instructions on “how” to adopt new community ethos, plus the strategies, tactics, implementations and advocacies to execute so as to reboot, reform and transform the societal engines of Caribbean society.

It is the urging here that upon the death of Queen Elizabeth II, the 12 British Commonwealth countries should exit the commonwealth – its a voluntary  club with no benefits; security is enforced by NATO, not the Commonwealth. Plus too, the 6 British Overseas Territories should petition for full membership in this new CU Trade Federation. The Go Lean book opens with this explanation (Page 4):

There is no expectation of sovereignty with this entity, so a commitment to the goals and aspirations of this Federation must be voluntary. The member-states of the region must therefore lean-in, to embrace the values, hopes and dreams of an integrated brotherhood of neighbors.

The book proceeds to detail the following definitions and developments for Caribbean sovereignty:

  • Go Lean Strategy
    The Caribbean Union is not envisioned to be a sovereign “unified” state, but rather a Trade Federation, a proxy entity similar to a confederacy, a champion to “wage battle” on behalf of its member-nation-states. – Page 45
  • Fostering a Technocracy
    The Caribbean Union is a non-sovereign union, of which the right to rule remains with the member-states, in whatever constitutionality at the time of the CU accedence: Republic, Commonwealth, Department (French), Collectivity (French) Constituent Country (Netherlands) or Overseas Territory (USA and UK). The CU is therefore a confederation, a ”service provider”, acting on before and with the authority of the member-states. – Page 63
  • Caribbean Supreme Court
    With sovereignty not tied to the CU, there can also be the technical challenges as to whether the Caribbean Supreme is the final escalation of the judicial process. Consider an example of a case in Guadeloupe, a French Overseas Territory, a plaintiff may feel that the French courts maintain jurisdiction. A few test cases like this, early in the CU history should establish the precedence. – Page 90
  • Autonomous Rule for Territories
    The CU treaty includes the American, British, Dutch and French Overseas…. Though the legacy powers are among the world’s biggest economies, such prosperity has not always extended [here]. The CU only seeks autonomous rule from their legacies, not sovereignty, and receivership status in the case of any financial insolvency. – Page 120
  • Confederation Without Sovereignty
    The CU is only a trade and security bloc, so the sovereignty of island nations remains with its current possessors. So Puerto Rico remains with the US; the Caymans with the UK; Curacao with the Netherlands; Guadeloupe with France, etc. Yet there are still severe consequences for violating the mandates of the CU, that of economic sanctions. When a country’s currency is maintained by the regional bloc, they are less inclined to egregiously work against their best interest. (This is the EU model). For Cuba, a Communist country, their political structure remains their choice, as the CU is only the technocratic and economic engine that does their trade bidding. – Page 127
  • Ways to Model the EU
    The EU region has quite an ignoble history of contending with differences, spurning 2 World Wars in the last century. Yet they came together to unite and integrate to make Europe a better place to live, work and play. Just like the EU, the CU will not possess sovereignty; this feature remains with each member-state. – Page 130
  • White Paper [Excerpt]: “Towards A CariCom Parliament”
    The Caribbean … difficulty in establishing a common Parliament has to do with leadership. Because of their history as slave and indentured societies, it has been suggested that the leaders in the Caribbean were reluctant to transfer authority and cede their sovereign status. While these factors are no doubt valid, the paper argued that the major problem in the Caribbean may be the absence of a well- thought out federal political arrangement and the inability by the various countries to articulate clearly defined procedures and practices. …
    This paper concluded that given the global imperatives, the countries of the Commonwealth Caribbean must re-examine their options and perhaps extend CariCom to that of a CariCom Parliament. – Page 167
  • Economic Sanctions and Penalties
    Since the CU does not have sovereignty, the only legal response is sanctions for state governments not complying with CU mandates. The “death penalty” would be a Failed-State designation. The CU is the designated receiver/trustee. – Page 168
  • Spanish Integration
    The CU allows the reunification of Spanish Caribbean (PR, Cuba, DR) to one economic market, a reversal of European Imperialism of the 19th Century. There are no sovereignty issues with the CU…, so the neighbors get to integrate and scale with no political disparity. This is a lesson learned from the Samoa Islands experience. – Page 244
  • Ways to Impact British Territories
    The CU will allow for the unification of the region into one market, thereby creating a single economy of 30 member-states for 42 million people with the scale to effect change; the CU does not involve sovereignty. The treaty includes the British Overseas Territories of Anguilla, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Montserrat, Turks & Caicos and the Virgin Islands. Though the UK is one of the biggest (richest) economies, British economic prosperity has not always extended to these islands; many chose to just emigrate there. – Page 245

The Queen of England, Elizabeth II, does help to run the governments of England, Great Britain, United Kingdom and the Commonwealth. She serves as the Head of State and asks the political parties in the individual countries to form a government in her name. The theme of this style of governance – Westminster – has been detailed in previous blog-commentaries:

https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=13993 First Steps – Following the ‘Dignified and Efficient’ British Model
The British model for governance – where Queen Elizabeth II is the Head of State – strives to provide the dual functions of “the Dignified and the Efficient”. There are lessons to learned regards the strengths and weaknesses of this scheme.
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=12447 State of the Union: Deficient ‘Westminster System’
The Westminster structure of governance is not as efficient as we need for a new Caribbean. What are the defects and how do we fix our governance?
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=11420 ‘Black British’ and ‘Less Than’
Any appeal of the British eco-system must be rebutted with the reality of life in the UK for the Caribbean’s Black-and-Brown. Racial supremacy and discrimination is still a concern. Our people are still considered “Less Than” there.
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=9485 10 Things We Want from the UK and 10 Things We Do Not Want
There is a “give and take” relationship between the Caribbean and the United Kingdom. They have given a lot to the Caribbean over the centuries: systems of commerce, systems of governance, education, language, art and culture. They also gave things we do not want: racism, mercantilism, global war, etc.
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=4840 Jamaican Poll: ‘Bring back the British!’
The island-nation of Jamaica requested and was granted independence from the UK in 1962. Now those days before independence seem now to be nostalgic for many older Jamaicans. They long for a simpler time: with more economic prosperity, more jobs, more security (less crime), and more governing efficiency.
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=1683 British public sector workers strike over ‘poverty pay’
For many of the Caribbean Diaspora that fled to England over the decades, the only employment option were with government agencies; this was due the blatant racism in the private society. But even those jobs were less than adequate with their poverty-level pay scales.

The death of Queen Elizabeth II will be an end of an era and a sad day …

… but  it does not have to be the end or our actuality; it could be a new beginning …

… for a new rebooted Anglo-Caribbean region.

Yet, still the end of Queen Elizabeth should equal the end of the Anglo-Caribbean and the start of the Unified Caribbean.

London has a plan in place for that dreaded day. The Caribbean has this plan here-in. This plan is for more than just post-Elizabeth, it is for a bright Caribbean future. One in which we can make our homeland a better place to live, work and play. 🙂

Download the free e-book of Go Lean … Caribbean – now!

Sign the petition to lean-in for this roadmap for the Caribbean Union Trade Federation.

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This Day in 1941: Pearl Harbor – ENCORE

This day 77 years ago is a “day that will live in infamy”.

This is the anniversary of the Japanese attack on the United States Navy at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. This event changed the world, as it ushered the US into World War II when they declared war against Japan the next day. Japan (Hirohito) was aligned with Germany (Hitler) and Italy (Mussolini), so by the US declaring war on Japan, the direct and immediate result was Germany and Italy declared war against the United States.

Germany, Italy, Japan, United States of America, …. these are just a sample of the countries involved in the conflict; it was a global war, the second one in 30 years.

There are a lot of lessons for the Caribbean in this history. This was the theme of this previous blog-commentary on December 7, 2016 during the 75th Anniversary commemoration. That entry is being Encored here-now, for the 2018 commemoration:

——————–

Go Lean Commentary – Lessons Learned from Pearl Harbor

What would you do if backed into a corner and there’s a threat on your life?

For many people their natural impulse is to come out fighting. They say that this is not aggression, rather just a survival instinct.

Believe it or not, this depiction describes one of the biggest attacks in American history: the Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor. See VIDEO here:

VIDEO – World War II History: Attack on Pearl Harbor – http://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/world-war-ii-history/videos/attack-pearl-harbor

Retrieved December 7, 2016 from History.com – On December 7, 1941, Japan launches a surprise attack on American soil at Pearl Harbor.

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This is the 75th Anniversary of that attack – a few days ago: December 7. That’s a lot of years and a lot of lessons. Still, 75 is a pretty round number, like 25, 50 and 100. This commentary has been reserved for now, a few days late on purpose because of the best-practice to “not speak ill of the dead” at a funeral or memorial service. But a “lessons learned analysis” is still an important exercise for benefiting from catastrophic efforts. After 75 years since the Pearl Harbor Attack on December 7, 1941, this post-mortem analysis is just as shocking as it was on this “day of infamy”.

Consider the details of this maligning article here (and the Appendices below); notice that it assumes a conspiracy:

Title: How U.S. Economic Warfare Provoked Japan’s Attack on Pearl Harbor
By: Robert Higgs

cu-blog-lessons-learned-from-pearl-harbor-photo-1Ask a typical American how the United States got into World War II, and he will almost certainly tell you that the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor and the Americans fought back. Ask him why the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, and he will probably need some time to gather his thoughts. He might say that the Japanese were aggressive militarists who wanted to take over the world, or at least the Asia-Pacific part of it. Ask him what the United States did to provoke the Japanese, and he will probably say that the Americans did nothing: we were just minding our own business when the crazy Japanese, completely without justification, mounted a sneak attack on us, catching us totally by surprise in Hawaii on December 7, 1941.

You can’t blame him much. For more than 60 years such beliefs have constituted the generally accepted view among Americans, the one taught in schools and depicted in movies—what “every schoolboy knows.” Unfortunately, this orthodox view is a tissue of misconceptions. Don’t bother to ask the typical American what U.S. economic warfare had to do with provoking the Japanese to mount their attack, because he won’t know. Indeed, he will have no idea what you are talking about.

In the late nineteenth century, Japan’s economy began to grow and to industrialize rapidly. Because Japan has few natural resources, many of the burgeoning industries had to rely on imported raw materials, such as coal, iron ore or steel scrap, tin, copper, bauxite, rubber, and petroleum. Without access to such imports, many of which came from the United States or from European colonies in southeast Asia, Japan’s industrial economy would have ground to a halt. By engaging in international trade, however, the Japanese had built a moderately advanced industrial economy by 1941.

At the same time, they also built a military-industrial complex to support an increasingly powerful army and navy. These armed forces allowed Japan to project its power into various places in the Pacific and east Asia, including Korea and northern China, much as the United States used its growing industrial might to equip armed forces that projected U.S. power into the Caribbean and Latin America, and even as far away as the Philippine Islands.

When Franklin D. Roosevelt became president in 1933, the U.S. government fell under the control of a man who disliked the Japanese and harbored a romantic affection for the Chinese because, some writers have speculated, Roosevelt’s ancestors had made money in the China trade.[1] Roosevelt also disliked the Germans (and of course Adolf Hitler), and he tended to favor the British in his personal relations and in world affairs. He did not pay much attention to foreign policy, however, until his New Deal began to peter out in 1937. Afterward, he relied heavily on foreign policy to fulfill his political ambitions, including his desire for reelection to an unprecedented third term.

When Germany began to rearm and to seek Lebensraum aggressively in the late 1930s, the Roosevelt administration cooperated closely with the British and the French in measures to oppose German expansion. After World War II commenced in 1939, this U.S. assistance grew ever greater and included such measures as the so-called destroyer deal and the deceptively named Lend-Lease program. In anticipation of U.S. entry into the war, British and U.S. military staffs secretly formulated plans for joint operations. U.S. forces sought to create a war-justifying incident by cooperating with the British navy in attacks on German U-boats in the north Atlantic, but Hitler refused to take the bait, thus denying Roosevelt the pretext he craved for making the United States a full-fledged, declared belligerent—an end that the great majority of Americans opposed.

In June 1940, Henry L. Stimson, who had been secretary of war under Taft and secretary of state under Hoover, became secretary of war again. Stimson was a lion of the Anglophile, northeastern upper crust and no friend of the Japanese. In support of the so-called Open Door Policy for China, Stimson favored the use of economic sanctions to obstruct Japan’s advance in Asia. Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau and Interior Secretary Harold Ickes vigorously endorsed this policy. Roosevelt hoped that such sanctions would goad the Japanese into making a rash mistake by launching a war against the United States, which would bring in Germany because Japan and Germany were allied.

Accordingly, the Roosevelt administration, while curtly dismissing Japanese diplomatic overtures to harmonize relations, imposed a series of increasingly stringent economic sanctions on Japan. In 1939 the United States terminated the 1911 commercial treaty with Japan. “On July 2, 1940, Roosevelt signed the Export Control Act, authorizing the President to license or prohibit the export of essential defense materials.” Under this authority, “[o]n July 31, exports of aviation motor fuels and lubricants and No. 1 heavy melting iron and steel scrap were restricted.” Next, in a move aimed at Japan, Roosevelt slapped an embargo, effective October 16, “on all exports of scrap iron and steel to destinations other than Britain and the nations of the Western Hemisphere.” Finally, on July 26, 1941, Roosevelt “froze Japanese assets in the United States, thus bringing commercial relations between the nations to an effective end. One week later Roosevelt embargoed the export of such grades of oil as still were in commercial flow to Japan.”[2] The British and the Dutch followed suit, embargoing exports to Japan from their colonies in southeast Asia.

An Untenable Position
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Roosevelt and his subordinates knew they were putting Japan in an untenable position and that the Japanese government might well try to escape the stranglehold by going to war. Having broken the Japanese diplomatic code, the Americans knew, among many other things, what Foreign Minister Teijiro Toyoda had communicated to Ambassador Kichisaburo Nomura on July 31: “Commercial and economic relations between Japan and third countries, led by England and the United States, are gradually becoming so horribly strained that we cannot endure it much longer. Consequently, our Empire, to save its very life, must take measures to secure the raw materials of the South Seas.”[3]

Because American cryptographers had also broken the Japanese naval code, the leaders in Washington knew as well that Japan’s “measures” would include an attack on Pearl Harbor.[4] Yet they withheld this critical information from the commanders in Hawaii, who might have headed off the attack or prepared themselves to defend against it. That Roosevelt and his chieftains did not ring the tocsin makes perfect sense: after all, the impending attack constituted precisely what they had been seeking for a long time. As Stimson confided to his diary after a meeting of the war cabinet on November 25, “The question was how we should maneuver them [the Japanese] into firing the first shot without allowing too much danger to ourselves.”[5] After the attack, Stimson confessed that “my first feeling was of relief … that a crisis had come in a way which would unite all our people.[6]

Source: The Independent Institute – Online Community – Posted: May 1, 2006; retrieved December 7, 2016 from: http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=1930
——–
See Appendices below for cited references and profiles of the Author and the Organization.

So this establishes why the Japanese may have been motivated to attack Pearl Harbor in the first place. The motivation seems more complicated than initially reported.

The Bible declares that:

“For there is nothing hidden that will not become manifest” – Luke 8:17

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After 75 years, the before-during-after facts associated with the Pearl Harbor Attack should be available for full disclosure. What are the lessons here for the Caribbean and today’s effort to secure the Caribbean homeland while expanding the regional economy? We truly want to consider these main points, these lessons; (the hyperlinks refer to previous Go Lean commentaries):

Lessons

Territories have a status of disregard Hawaii (Pearl Harbor) and Philippines were attacked by the Japanese. These were both US Territories at the same. The levels of protection and preparedness for territories are sub-standard compared to the American mainland. As a result there was no meaningful plan for the air defense of Hawaii.
Colonialism is/was really bad Japan protested the sub-standard reality of the native Asians under the European colonial schemes. A people oppressed, suppressed and repressed would not remain docile forever; “that a downtrodden people would not stay down, that they would rise and revolt, that they would risk their lives and that of their children to pursue freedom.” – Go Lean book Page 251.
White Supremacy is/was a really bad construct The US Territories (Hawaii and Philippines) were not the first targets for Japan. They targeted all European colonies (British, French and Dutch) territories. Their campaign was to rail against White Supremacy.
Bullies only respond to a superior force Japan avail themselves of expansion opportunities in Far-East Asia as the European powers became distracted in the time period during and after World War I. (Manchuria in China was occupied by Japan starting in 1931). Only a superior force, the US, was able to assuage their aggression.
Economic Warfare can back a Government into a corner When the supply of basic needs (food, clothing, shelter and energy) are curtailed, a crisis ensues. When people are in crisis, they consider “fight or flight” options. Japan chose to fight; Caribbean people choose flight.
Societies can double-down on a bad Community Ethos Japan’s aggression was a direct result of their community ethos that honored Samurai warrior and battle culture. Men would walk the streets with their swords, ready for a challenge. On the other hand, the US (and Western Europe) community ethos of racism was so ingrained that the natural response in the US, post-Pearl Harbor, was to intern Japanese Americans in camps.
All of these bad community ethos were weeded out with post-WWII Human Rights reconciliations. – Go Lean book Page 220.
Double Standards are hard to ignore Japan felt justified in their Pacific aggression because of the US’s regional aggression in the Americas. Before Pearl Harbor, they withdrew from the League of Nations in protest of double standards.
Even after WWII, this double standard continues with countries with Veto power on the UN Security Council.
People have short memories There are movements to re-ignite many of the same developments that led to the devastation of WWII: right wing initiatives in Japan and Germany; Human Rights disregard for large minority groups (Muslims, etc.).
The more things change, the more they remain the same.

This discussion is analyzing the concept of “fight or flight”. According to Anthropologists, individuals and societies facing a crisis have to contend with these two options for survival. The very concept of refugees indicate that most people choose to flee; they choose internal displacement or refuge status in foreign countries. This point is consistent with the theme in the book Go Lean … Caribbean that this region is in crisis and as a result people have fled from their beloved homelands to foreign destinations in North America and Europe. How bad? According to one report, we have lost 70 percent of our tertiary-educated population.

Enough said! Our indictment is valid. Rather than flee, we now want the region to fight. This is not advocating a change to a militaristic state, but rather this commentary, and the underlying Go Lean book, advocates devoting “blood, sweat and tears” to empowering change in the Caribbean region. The book states this in its introduction (Page 3):

We cannot ignore the past, as it defines who we are, but we do not wish to be shackled to the past either, for then, we miss the future. So we must learn from the past, our experiences and that of other states in similar situations, mount our feet solidly to the ground and then lean-in, to reach for new heights; forward, upward and onward. This is what is advocated in this book: to Go Lean … Caribbean!

The Go Lean book serves as a roadmap for the introduction and implementation of the Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU). One mission of this roadmap is to reduce the “push and pull” factors that contributes to the high emigration rates. For the most part the “push and pull” factors relate to the societal defects among the economic, security and governing engines. Another mission is to incentivize the far-flung Diaspora to consider a return to the region. Overall, the Go Lean roadmap asserts that the economy of the Caribbean is inextricably linked to the security of the Caribbean. The roadmap therefore proposes an accompanying Security Pact to accompany the CU treaty’s economic empowerment efforts. The plan is to cooperate, collaborate and confer with all regional counterparts so as to provide an optimized Caribbean defense, against all threats, foreign and domestic. This includes the American Caribbean territories (just like Pearl Harbor was on the American territory of Hawaii) of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. These American protectorates are included in this CU regional plan.

This CU/Go Lean regional plan strives to advance all of Caribbean society with these 3 prime directives:

  • Optimization of the economic engines in order to grow the regional economy to a $800 Billion Single Market by creating 2.2 million new jobs.
  • Establishment of a security apparatus to protect the resultant economic engines.
  • Improvement of Caribbean governance in support of these endeavors.

The Go Lean book stresses the effectiveness and efficiency of protecting life and property of all Caribbean stakeholders: residents, trading partners, visitors, etc.. This is why the book posits that some deployments are too big for any one member-state to manage alone – especially with such close proximities of one island nation to another – there are times when there must be a cross-border multi-lateral coordination – a regional partnership. This is the vision that is defined in the book (Pages 12 – 14), starting with these statements in the opening Declaration of Interdependence:

x. Whereas we are surrounded and allied to nations of larger proportions in land mass, populations, and treasuries, elements in their societies may have ill-intent in their pursuits, at the expense of the safety and security of our citizens. We must therefore appoint “new guards” to ensure our public safety and threats against our society, both domestic and foreign.

xii. Whereas the legacy in recent times in individual states may be that of ineffectual governance with no redress to higher authority, the accedence of this Federation will ensure accountability and escalation of the human and civil rights of the people for good governance, justice assurances, due process and the rule of law. As such, any threats of a “failed state” status for any member state must enact emergency measures on behalf of the Federation to protect the human, civil and property rights of the citizens, residents, allies, trading partners, and visitors of the affected member state and the Federation as a whole.

xvi. Whereas security of our homeland is inextricably linked to prosperity of the homeland, the economic and security interest of the region needs to be aligned under the same governance.

The Go Lean roadmap is not a call for a revolt against the governments, agencies or institutions of the Caribbean region, but rather a petition for a peaceful transition and optimization of the economic, security and governing engines in the region. To establish the security optimization, the Go Lean book presents a series of community ethos that must be adapted to forge this change. In addition, there are these specific strategies, tactics, implementation and advocacies to apply:

Community Ethos – new Economic Principles Page 21
Community Ethos – new Security Principles Page 22
Community Ethos – Minority Equalization Page 24
Community Ethos – Impacting the Greater Good Page 34
Strategy – Mission – Enact a Defense Pact to defend the homeland Page 45
Tactical – Fostering a Technocracy Page 64
Tactical – Homeland Security – Naval Operations Page 75
Tactical – Homeland Security – Militias Page 75
Implementation – Assemble – US Overseas Territory into CU Page 96
Implementation – Foreign Policy Initiatives at Start-up Page 102
Implementation – Security Initiatives at Start-up Page 103
Implementation – Ways to Promote Independence Page 120
Planning – Ways to Model the EU – Constructs after WW II Page 130
Advocacy – Ways to Better Manage the Social Contract Page 170
Advocacy – Ways to Improve Homeland Security Page 180
Advocacy – Ways to Mitigate Terrorism Page 181
Advocacy – Ways to Improve Intelligence Gathering Page 182
Advocacy – Ways to Enhance Tourism – Mitigate Risky Image Page 190
Advocacy – Ways to Improve Emergency Management Page 196
Advocacy – Ways to Preserve Caribbean Heritage Page 218
Advocacy – Ways to Impact US Territories Page 244

Now is the time to lean-in to this roadmap and “fight” for Caribbean change, as depicted in the book Go Lean…Caribbean. At this time, there are no State Actor adversaries – like Imperial Japan – seeking to cause harm to our homeland, but that status quo can change very quickly. Some Caribbean member-states are still de facto “colonies”, so enemies of our colonial masters – France, Netherlands, US, UK – can quickly “pop up”. We must be ready and on guard to any possible threats and security risks.

The movement behind the Go Lean … Caribbean book seeks to make this homeland a better place to live, work and play. Since the Caribbean is arguably the best address of the planet, tourism is a primary concern. So security here in our homeland must take on a different priority. Tourists do not visit war zones – civil wars, genocides, active terrorism, Failed-States and rampant crime. Already our societal defects (economics) have created such crises that our people have chosen to flee as opposed to “fight”. We do not need security threats as well; we do not need Failed-States. We are now preparing to “fight” (exert great efforts), not flee, to wage economic war to elevate our  communities.

This will not be easy; this is heavy-lifting, but success is possible. The strategies, tactics and implementations in the Go Lean roadmap are conceivable, believable and achievable. 🙂

Download the book Go Lean … Caribbean – now!

———–

Appendix A – Reference Notes:
1.  Harry Elmer Barnes, “Summary and Conclusions,” in Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace:A Critical Examination of the Foreign Policy of Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Its Aftermath (Caldwell, Id.: Caxton Printers, 1953), pp. 682–83.
2.  All quotations in this paragraph from George Morgenstern, “The Actual Road to Pearl Harbor,” in Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace, pp. 322–23, 327–28.
3.  Quoted ibid., p. 329.
4.  Robert B. Stinnett, Day of Deceit: The Truth about FDR and Pearl Harbor (NewYork: Free Press, 2000).
5.  Stimson quoted in Morgenstern, p. 343.
6.  Stimson quoted ibid., p. 384.

 ——-

Appendix B – About the Author:

Robert Higgs is a Senior Fellow in Political Economy at the Independent Institute and Editor at Large of the Institute’s quarterly journal The Independent Review. He received his Ph.D. in economics from JohnsHopkinsUniversity, and he has taught at the University of Washington, LafayetteCollege, SeattleUniversity, the University of Economics, Prague, and GeorgeMasonUniversity.

——-

Appendix C – About the Independent Institute:

The Independent Institute is a non-profit, non-partisan, scholarly research and educational organization that sponsors in-depth studies of critical social and economic issues.

The mission of the Independent Institute is to boldly advance peaceful, prosperous, and free societies grounded in a commitment to human worth and dignity.

Today, the influence of partisan interests is so pervasive that public-policy debate has become too politicized and is largely confined to a narrow reconsideration of existing policies. In order to fully understand the nature of public issues and possible solutions, the Institute’s program adheres to the highest standards of independent scholarly inquiry.
Source: http://www.independent.org/aboutus/

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In Defense of Trade – Currency Assassins: Real Threat

Go Lean Commentary

Want a good return on your investment? How about 45 percent? People have enjoyed these returns in the Foreign Currency Exchange (Fx) Markets.

Sounds appealing, right?!

This is why “they” do what “they” do. Currency Speculators & Vulture Capitalists that is! They can work their “Black Magic” and exploit vulnerable countries-currencies. Imagine the crime: “they” lend or borrow ill-advised monies requiring repayment in a foreign currency; then “they” manipulate supply and demand of the domestic currency against that foreign currency so as “to buy low and sell high”, at the expense of the foreign reserves maintained by a nation-state. Imagine hoarding the supply or artificially inflating the demand of the currency to manipulate a price increase. Boom! Instant profits.

This is the unrighteous work of Currency Assassins, Manipulators and/or Speculators. There are so many dangers of Speculative Attacks. Learn more here (in addition to the Appendix B VIDEO below):

In Economics, a speculative attack is a precipitous acquisition of some assets (currencies, gold, emission permits, remaining quotas) by previously inactive speculators. The first model of a speculative attack was contained in a 1975 discussion paper on the gold market by Stephen Salant and Dale Henderson at the Federal Reserve BoardPaul Krugman, who visited the Board as a graduate student intern, soon [1] adapted their mechanism[2] to explain speculative attacks in the foreign exchange market.[3]Source.

These ones, who practice these exploits are indeed Bad Actors.

The book Go Lean…Caribbean warns the region to be On Guard for Bad Actors … like these:

… history teaches that with the emergence of new economic engines, “bad actors” will also emerge thereafter to exploit the opportunities, with good, bad and evil intent. – Go Lean book Page 21.

This subject matter is not just academic; this happened for real, even to the large country of Great Britain/United Kingdom; this was the experience of the notorious Black Wednesday:

An example of this can be seen in the United Kingdom prior to the implementation of the Euro [currency] when European countries used a fixed exchange rate amongst the nations. The Bank of England had an interest rate that was too low while Germany had a relatively higher interest rate. Speculators increasingly borrowed money from the Bank of England and converted the money into the German mark at the fixed exchange rate. The demand for the British pound dropped so much that the exchange rate was no longer able to be maintained and the pound depreciated suddenly. Investors were then able to convert their German marks back into pounds at a significantly higher rate, allowing them to pay off their loans and keep large profits.

In a previous Go Lean Commentary, the dangers of currency speculation was identified and qualified:

Venezuela sues black market currency website in US
The Central Bank of Venezuela has filed a lawsuit in US courts against Miami-based entity DolarToday, alleging that this website undermines the Venezuelan bank, currency and economy by falsifying the country’s exchange rates.

Also, in another Go Lean Commentary, the dangers of Economic Assassins – Vulture Capitalists – were identified & qualified:

Beware of Vulture Capitalists
The term “vulture fund” is a metaphor, which can be considered a pejorative term, used to compare hedge funds to the behavior of vulture birds “preying” on debtors in financial distress by purchasing the now-cheap credit on a secondary market to make a large monetary gain, in many cases leaving the debtor in a worse state. …

This dire disposition of debt is … applies to many other communities, in North America, Europe (think Greece), Latin America and even in the Caribbean. …

The better the Credit Rating … the less of a chance to be limited to Vulture Capitalists.

Holy Cow! Economic Assassins; Vulture Capitalists; Currency Speculators; these are truly Bad Actors and a serious threat! Trade & economic stewardship is hard!

In truth, the book Go Lean…Caribbean calls this effort heavy-lifting, as it presents the strategies, tactics, implementations and advocacies to shepherd the Caribbean economy. The book serves as a roadmap for the introduction and implementation of the technocratic Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU) and the aligning Caribbean Central Bank (CCB). Considering the branding, the emphasis is on trade . The CU/CCB will serve as integrated entities to shepherd the complexities for the region’s currency affairs.

This commentary is the final of a 5-part series (5 of 5) from the movement behind the Go Lean book in consideration of the subject “In Defense of Trade“. A discussion on currency is a discussion on trade. The focus is that for a new economic regime, Trade optimization must be coupled with optimization in monetary governance. The commentaries in the series are as follows:

  1. In Defense of Trade: China Realities
  2. In Defense of Trade: Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade Model – ENCORE
  3. In Defense of Trade: India BPO’s
  4. In Defense of Trade: Bilateral Tariffs – No one wins
  5. In Defense of Trade: Currency Assassins – Real Threat

No doubt, despite the identified dangers, there is the need to grow the Caribbean economy. We need the jobs, entrepreneurial opportunities, better educational and healthcare options that would arise because of the embrace of trade. So we must have “Guards at the Gate” to protect our homeland from all Bad Actors. This is the quest of the Go Lean movement. In fact, the books states this quest as prime directives. The prime directives are pronounced as the following statements:

  • Optimization of the economic engines in order to grow the regional economy to $800 Billion & create 2.2 million new jobs.
  • Establishment of a security apparatus to protect the resultant economic engines and mitigate challenges/threats to ensure public safety for the region’s stakeholders.
  • Improvement of Caribbean governance, including a separation-of-powers with member-states, to support these economic/security engines.

These prime directives reflect the best practice for managing Caribbean societal engines – economy, security and governance –  with an interdependent focus. This was pronounced at the outset of the book in the opening Declaration of Interdependence (Pages 10 – 13):

Preamble: … when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.

x. Whereas we are surrounded and allied to nations of larger proportions in land mass, populations, and treasuries, elements in their societies may have ill-intent in their pursuits, at the expense of the safety and security of our citizens. We must therefore appoint “new guards” to ensure our public safety and threats against our society, both domestic and foreign. …

xvi. Whereas security of our homeland is inextricably linked to prosperity of the homeland, the economic and security interest of the region needs to be aligned under the same governance. Since economic crimes … can imperil the functioning of the wheels of commerce for all the citizenry, the accedence of this Federation must equip the security apparatus with the tools and techniques for predictive and proactive interdictions.

xxiv.   Whereas a free market economy can be induced and spurred for continuous progress, the Federation must install the controls to better manage aspects of the economy: jobs, inflation, savings rate, investments and other economic principles. Thereby attracting direct foreign investment because of the stability and vibrancy of our economy.

There must be New Guards to mitigate the Caribbean advance into trade. This is the charter of the CU Trade Federation. The vision is to provide the stewardship for the region’s economic engines, to optimize trade for intra-region and also extra-regional. This vision details some sound principles for adoption; consider this nugget from Page 129:

Caribbean Dollar
The Caribbean Dollar will be the medium of exchange for trade between CU member-states. There is no need to trade in any foreign currency (i.e. US$). In fact, the Caribbean Central Bank will control the monetary policies of the CU region. Any mis-management of US fiscal policies, often the case with Congress’ deficit spending, would not impede on the necessary trade of one Caribbean state to another.

The CCB will be empowered to intervene in the currency affairs of the region. This constitute the New Guards that will be watching the Caribbean regional marketplace. This is what Central Banks do – should do – and now there will be one for our region:

Currency intervention is a monetary policy operation which occurs when a government or central bank buys or sells foreign currency in exchange for their own domestic currency, generally with the intention of influencing the exchange rate and trade policy. Policymakers may have different reasons for currency manipulation, such as controlling inflation, maintaining international competitiveness, financial stability, etc. – Source

In the Caribbean we have a crisis that stems from our high societal abandonment rate. Every time we have had currency devaluation episodes, a consequence has been citizens fleeing away from their homelands. What is the cause of these episodes? Number 1 reason/answer: Currency Speculators … trying to exploit our vulnerabilities. See this evidence-sample:

  1. Barbados
    Like many small developing countries, Barbados’ capital markets are comparatively unsophisticated and protected by legislative and non-legislative barriers to capital flows. However, by imposing a simple Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) condition, the counterfactual situation of free capital movements and efficient capital markets can be simulated. It is shown that in these conditions successful speculative attacks on the currency anchor would have occurred in times of macroeconomic disequilibrium. This paper is, therefore, supportive of those who, in the wake of the 1990s’ major financial, balance of payments and currency crises, have argued for a more cautious approach to financial and capital account liberalisation, particularly for those countries that have chosen to maintain a fixed currency arrangement.
    Source: Caribbean Development Bank Staff Working Paper May 2000; retrieved November 27, 2018 from: http://www.caribank.org/uploads/publications-reports/staff-papers/wkgppr_2_exchange_rates[1].pdf
  2. Jamaica
    This paper attempts to generate an empirical model aimed at predicting the timing and magnitude of currency depreciation forced by speculative attacks on Jamaica’s managed exchange rate system. The paper is grounded within a first generation approach (‘fundamentals approach’) to speculative attack modeling, which stresses the role played by weak economic fundamentals in inducing currency crises. –
    Source: Bank of Jamaica White Paper; “Estimation of Speculative Attach Models and the Implications for Macroeconomic Policy – 1990 to 2000“; published January 2001; retrieved November 27, 2018 from: http://www.boj.org.jm/uploads/pdf/papers_pamphlets/papers_pamphlets_Estimation_of_Speculative_Attack_Models_and_the_Implication_for_Macroeconomic_Policy.pdf
  3. Dominican Republic
    This paper examines the determinants of speculative attacks that occurred recently in the Dominican Republic, and proposes a series of indicators to serve as an early warning system for identifying vulnerable periods. The estimates were made using monthly data covering the period between January 1996 and June 2008. The results show that the proposed indicators have the ability to reasonably explain and predict the existence of a speculative attack.
    Source: Academic Paper – Pontificia Universidad Católica Madre y Maestra; “Pressure and speculative attacks on the foreign exchange market of the Dominican Republic“; published November 2008; retrieved November 27, 2018 from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254443014_Pressure_and_speculative_attacks_on_the_foreign_exchange_market_of_the_Dominican_Republic

Here in the Caribbean, we must learn …

Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice same on me.

This Go Lean/CU roadmap is designed to address all of this societal engines: economic (monetary), security and governance. The Go Lean book – within its 370 pages – describes how a new Caribbean regime can be empowered to promote and protect trade. The solutions include adopting new community ethos; plus the execution of new strategies, tactics, and implementations to impact the regional economy.  Consider this one advocacy from the book, for optimizing Foreign Currency management. See the specific plans, excerpts and headlines on Page 154 under the title:

10 Ways to Better Manage Foreign Exchange

The Bottom Line on Foreign Exchange Markets

The foreign exchange market is the most liquid financial market in the world. [This is a recent history compared to international commerce in general, with most of the market structure being developed since World War II and after the abandonment of the gold standard. After WWII, the Bretton Woods Accord was signed allowing currencies to fluctuate within a range of 1% to the currencies par; then this structure was eclipsed in the 1970’s, ending fixed rates of exchange and bringing about eventually a free-floating currency system. After 40 years and more iterations, we now have the status quo].

Today, currency traders include large banks, central banks, institutional investors, currency speculators, corporations, governments, other financial institutions, and retail investors. The average daily turnover in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. According to the 2010 Triennial Central Bank Survey, coordinated by the Bank for International Settlements, average daily turnover was US$3.98 trillion in April 2010 (vs $1.7 trillion in 1998). Of this $3.98 trillion, $1.5 trillion was spot transactions and $2.5 trillion was traded in outright forwards, swaps and other derivatives. Foreign exchange trading increased by 20% between April 2007 and April 2010 and has more than doubled since 2004.

A foreign exchange market is closest to the ideal of perfect competition, notwithstanding currency intervention (capital controls) by central banks. Totally free markets spurn the development of complex products like derivatives. The 2007 – 2009 Global Financial Crisis demonstrated that free-radical derivative markets do bring systemic threats. (Appendix ZA on Page 315).

1 Lean-in for the Caribbean Single Market & Economy

This treaty allows for the unification of the region into one market, thereby expanding to an economy of 30 countries, 42 million people and GDP of over $800 Billion (circa 2010). A mission of the CU is to empower the economic engines in the region. The Caribbean Central Bank (CCB) will manage the monetary policy and reserves, taking a long view to the region’s economic vibrancy. The Governors of the CCB will be appointed for 14-year terms, thus insulating them from political alignments. This strategy is necessary for the management of advanced exchange products affecting the region’s capital controls (derivatives will be managed in a controlled environment to assuage against systemic risk).

2 Mixed-Basket of Foreign Reserves

The Caribbean Central Bank will control the money supply of the region with new monetary tools (i.e. Open Market Operations not available before), and using a mixed-basket (modeled after the IMF) of foreign reserves assuage the risk tied to any one Super Power, (a la the US dollar). The tool-kits for capital controls (see Appendix ZA) expand under this management approach. The US decisions are made by and for Americans, the Caribbean gets no vote.

3 Overcome Fear of Math
4 E-Payments Neutralizations
5 Apply Lessons-Learned in Region
6 Currency Manipulators / Speculators

The Caribbean Central Bank will enforce monetary control for amounts exceeding a moderate limit, to assuage currency manipulators from “gaming” and abusing the system for illicit gains. This was a lesson-learned from Jamaica.

7 Realities of Dual Currencies

The CU Treaty does not nullify local currencies, rather the C$ is designed to replace the US Dollar default dominance in the region. As such all regional casinos (except in PR & USVI) will game in C$, not US$. This nullifies “black markets”.

8 Diaspora Realities
9 Euro Zone Model for CU and CCB
10 Add the British Pound Sterling to CCB Basket

Do you want to grow the economy?

Trade … more!

Do you want to trade more?

Be prepared to buy-and-sell foreign currency; and be prepared for foreigners to buy-and-sell your domestic currency.

They will be strangers; some will be nice; some will be Bad Actors – “Currency Assassins”.

This is the reality of global trade and foreign currency: Bad Actors will always merge … some with evil intent.

Currency Assassins … are real!

But we can be better and do better. We can trade with the globe and be On Guard for Bad Actors.

Yes, we can …

Mastering globalization, trade and foreign currency is how we must compete in today’s trade battles. This is the quest of the Go Lean roadmap.

Everyone in the Caribbean is urged to lean-in to this roadmap to make the Caribbean a better place to live, work and play. 🙂

Download the free e-Book of Go Lean … Caribbean – now!

Sign the petition to lean-in for this roadmap for the Caribbean Union Trade Federation.

——————-

Appendix A – Understanding the Foreign Exchange Market

Lesson summary

The foreign exchange market is like any other market insofar as something is being bought and sold. However, the foreign exchange market is unique in two ways:

  1. currencyis being bought and sold, rather than a good or service
  2. The currency being bought and sold is being bought with a different currency.

See remainder of lesson at source here:

Source- Khan Academy e-Learning retrieved November 26, 2018 from: https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/macroeconomics/forex-trade-topic/macro-the-foreign-exchange-market/a/the-foreign-exchange-market

——————-

Appendix B VIDEO – Speculative attack on a currency | Foreign exchange and trade | Macroeconomics | Khan Academy – https://youtu.be/P2IWGlR1SHs

Khan Academy
Published on May 8, 2012 – Macroeconomics on Khan Academy: Topics covered in a traditional college level introductory macroeconomics course.

About Khan Academy: Khan Academy offers practice exercises, instructional videos, and a personalized learning dashboard that empower learners to study at their own pace in and outside of the classroom. We tackle math, science, computer programming, history, art history, economics, and more. Our math missions guide learners from kindergarten to calculus using state-of-the-art, adaptive technology that identifies strengths and learning gaps. We’ve also partnered with institutions like NASA, The Museum of Modern Art, The California Academy of Sciences, and MIT to offer specialized content.

For free. For everyone. Forever. #YouCanLearnAnything
Subscribe to Khan Academy’s Macroeconomics channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCByt…
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Original Source: https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/macroeconomics/forex-trade-topic/macro-the-foreign-exchange-market/v/speculative-attack-on-a-currency

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In Defense of Trade – Bilateral Tariffs: No one wins

Go Lean Commentary

Trade giveth; trade taketh away …

This has now been established: trade can transform a society, elevating masses of people out of poverty to a middle-class life.

We have seen this formula succeed and repeated time and again – Great Britain, United States, Germany, Japan, Asian Tigers (Singapore, Hong Kong. South Korea and Taiwan). The formula also works in the reverse: stopping trade and people become more improvised.

We are seeing this actuality now as well.

This is the assessment in the US where the current American Federal government (under President Donald Trump) has a new penchant for tariffs. This is also en vogue with the experiences in the UK; London is negotiating a new trade deal with the European Union as they leave – Brexit – that Single Market. Both of these developments appear to be inviting doom for the perspective economies.

This commentary is the fourth submission of a 5-part series (4 of 5) from the movement behind the book Go Lean…Caribbean in consideration of the subject “In Defense of Trade“. The focus here is that Trade must be prioritized in the Caribbean region if we want a new economic regime. The other commentaries in the series are cataloged as follows:

  1. In Defense of Trade: China Realities
  2. In Defense of Trade: Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade Model – ENCORE
  3. In Defense of Trade: India BPO’s
  4. In Defense of Trade: Bilateral Tariffs – No one wins
  5. In Defense of Trade: Currency Assassins – Real Threat

No doubt, we want growth, so this means we must embrace the strategies, tactics and implementations related to trade. This is how we can succeed with the quest for jobs, entrepreneurial opportunities, better educational and healthcare options, a safer homeland and more efficient governmental services. We must pay more than the usual attention to these discussions, especially related to tariffs.

tariff is a tax on imports or exports between sovereign states. Trade deficits mean that consumers buy too much foreign goods and too few domestic products. According to Keynesian theory, trade deficits are harmful. Countries that import more than they export weaken their economies. As the trade deficit increases, unemployment or poverty increases and GDP slows down. And surplus countries are getting richer at the expense of deficit countries. Keynes thought that surplus countries should be taxed[1].The tariff is used to equalize the trade balance in order to protect domestic workers. It is a policy that taxes foreign products and encourages home industry. – Source: Wikipedia.

Right now the US is doubling-down on a tariff strategy so as to force their will on the international community – especially targeting China. But the experts are asserting that a tariff strategy is not the solution.

Experts? The Economists … and Wall Street Titans. See this one Wall Street Titan prognosticate the vision of trade realities in this November 2018 VIDEO:

VIDEO – Ray Dalio on U.S. – China Trade Tensions, Markets – https://youtu.be/ZTJkNDlHB3s

CNBC
Published on Nov 15, 2018 – Ray Dalio, hedge fund giant Bridgewater Associates, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss markets, interest rates, the debt market and U.S.-China trade tensions.

The dispute between the U.S. and China over trade deficits and surpluses is rather trivial compared to the broader philosophical differences between the world’s two biggest economic superpowers, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio told CNBC on Thursday.

“The trade war, I think, can be worked out,” the billionaire investor Dalio said in a “Squawk Box” interview on CNBC. But he argued the conflict goes “way beyond the trade war.”

Dalio, co-CIO and co-chairman at Bridgewater, said the two nations’ polar opposite methods of governing is the broader, more difficult issue to reconcile. “It goes back to Confucius in 500 B.C.,” he said.

“It’s basically a top-down versus a bottom-up type of approach,” said Dalio, whose China unit of Bridgewater last month launched its first onshore Chinese investment fund.

“When you look at the 2025 plan in China, the government believes that they should have a plan for making China great” and will coordinate all aspects of public and private enterprise to achieve their goals, he said. “That type of activity is objectionable to the United States” in its free market economy.

The China 2025 plan is a state-backed industrial policy that’s provoked alarm in the West, and is core to Washington’s complaints about Beijing’s technological ambitions.

Dalio appeared on CNBC from the Greenwich Economic Forum in Connecticut where he later spoke to the elite gathering of “investment thought leaders“.

So Wall Street experts like Ray Dalio are urging caution for national governments implementing trade tariffs. In fact, an editorial by the iconic Wall Street Journal is strongly urging the trump administration to tread lightly with their new found affinity for tariff. The reason is simple:

No one wins a Trade War fought with the weapons of tariffs. It’s a fallacy and defective reasoning to think that tariff’s can be used to win a Trade War in this modern age of globalization.

This is the conclusion of the below Opinion Commentary in the Appendix: See the excerpt-summary here:

Mr. Trump has instead employed a unilateral tariff policy that lets him boast about being tough without a clear goal. The tariffs will hurt Chinese exporters, though many will move production to other countries. But tariffs also damage American producers and consumers, as does the $60 billion in new retaliatory tariffs that Beijing announced Tuesday.

The Caribbean needs to take note. We need effective strategies, tactics and implementation for trade. This is the quest of the book Go Lean…Caribbean.

The Go Lean book serves as a roadmap for the introduction and implementation of the technocratic Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU). The CU seeks to optimize the region’s economic systems to better deliver on the prime directives of the Go Lean roadmap. The prime directives are pronounced as the following statements:

  • Optimization of the economic engines in order to grow the regional economy to $800 Billion & create 2.2 million new jobs.
  • Establishment of a security apparatus to protect the resultant economic engines and mitigate challenges/threats to ensure public safety for the region’s stakeholders.
  • Improvement of Caribbean governance, including a separation-of-powers between member-states and CU federal agencies.

So the CU Trade Federation vision is to provide the stewardship for the region’s economic engines, to optimize trade, so as to succeed in the goals of the roadmap.

The Go Lean/CU roadmap is designed to drive change among the economic, security and governing engines of the Caribbean member-states. The Go Lean book – within its 370 pages – describes how a new Caribbean regime can better exploit the benefits of trade – thereby avoiding the pitfalls of faulty trade reasoning. Among the new community ethos the book urges the region to adopt and the strategies, tactics and implementations the book urges the region to execute is this one advocacy to double-down on trade. Consider the specific plans, excerpts and headlines from this advocacy on Page 128 entitled:

10 Ways to Improve Trade

1 Lean-in for the Caribbean Single Market

This treaty allows for the unification of the region into one market, thereby creating a single economy of 30 member-states, 42 million people and a GDP of over $800 Billion. The CU will function as a proxy organization of the governments of all 30 member-states … . The similar exclusivity of roles and responsibilities will allow the CU to deploy and then empower the economic engines of this region. The profits from this new Trading Company, the CU, also go back to its stockholders; in this case, the member-states.

In addition, the treaty will call for a homeland security pact, with emergency management provisions, to assuage regional threats and risks. The CU gets to apply the lessons-learned from … experience to pursue the Greater Good, ensure that its powers are always authorized and deputized by the sovereign states, and proper governance, transparency and accountability accompany all activities.

2 Adopt Trade SHIELD

The CU will adopt the Trade SHIELD principles (see APPENDIX D on Page 264) to foster and optimize domestic and international trade.

3 Caribbean Dollar (C$) Currency Stabilization Derived from Learned Lessons
4 Electronic Commerce to Streamline a Bigger Better Domestic Trade Market
5 CU Citizens as Foreign Guest Workers
6 Diaspora Trade

The presence of a Caribbean Diaspora in North American and EU cities furnishes an export market to profit from trade. Since most often, the Diaspora live in “pockets” in their foreign lands, the logistics of exporting products (food supplies and intellectual property) has been efficient, but the CU envisions an even more optimized trade process with Free Trade provisions, collaborated customs processing, pre-approved inspections, and electronic commerce in C$ Dollars.

7 Intellectual Property – Media, Music
8 Tourism Enhancers
9 Strategic Priorities (Food, Fisheries)

One mission of the CU is to facilitate the food supply so that the region can feed itself, more from local production and less from trade; this includes yields from domestic agriculture and fisheries. Even if the opportunity cost is too high for domestic food production compared to foreign trade, the CU must supplement with subsidies. Food is non-negotiable!

10 Trade Missions

The CU will foster a stronger foreign policy by “speaking on one accord” for all the member-states. The CU will therefore open/staff foreign Trade Missions to not only perform diplomatic services, but economic ones as well. This will extend beyond the current Trade Negotiations (OTN), so as to add the functions of a Group Purchasing Organization (GPO).

Tariffs are bad by the country imposing them, but by any competing entity – you hurt yourself.

Imagine the absurdity of this analogy: A Bad Actor robs a bank and instead of targeting the innocent hostages in the bank, he threatens to harm himself – “Give me the money or I will shoot … myself”.

Now that the Great Recession (2008) is over in the US, the country is enjoying a full recovery. But as warned in the foregoing editorial, faulty trade reasoning can jeopardize this disposition:

Strong U.S. growth after tax reform and deregulation is so far dwarfing the overall economic harm from tariffs, as Tuesday’s market nonchalance indicates. But the tariffs are doing arbitrary harm to innocent Americans, and a policy of hurting yourself until the other guy changes his behavior is hard to sustain.

This Go Lean movement has addressed Good -vs- Bad Trade Policies in the past. This consideration has reviewed the business prospects of chattel items (raw materials and finished goods), intelligent property (music and media products) and services (tourism, medical, outsourcing, etc.). Consider this sample of previous blog-commentaries:

https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=15346 Industrial Reboot – Shipbuilding 101
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=13184 Industrial Reboot – Frozen Foods 101
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=15310 Industrial Reboot with Trauma Centers
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=13138 Industrial Reboot – Prisons 101
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=12230 Commerce of the Seas – Extraction Realities
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=12126 Stupidity of the Jones Act on PR, USVI Trade
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=7789 An Ode to Detroit – Good Luck on Trade!
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=6867 How to address high consumer prices? Better Trade
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=5648 New Trade Regime for Music Industry
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=4767 Welcoming WTO? Say Goodbye to Nationalism
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=479 PetroCaribe approach to Regional Trade & Social Advocacy

The Caribbean can be a better homeland to live, work and play with a better execution of trade policies. Trade is more about “brains than it is about brawn”. We need to think smart and work smart to reform and transform our society.

Let’s do this!

This is the Go Lean quest.

We urge everyone in the Caribbean to lean-in to this roadmap. It is conceivable, believable and achievable. 🙂

Download the free e-Book of Go Lean … Caribbean – now!

Sign the petition to lean-in for this roadmap for the Caribbean Union Trade Federation.

—————-

Appendix – Title: The Missing China Trade Strategy
Sub-title: Trump imposes new tariffs but what he wants from Beijing isn’t clear.
By: WSJ Editorial Board

President Trump on Monday imposed a long-threatened 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports, effective next week, with the rate set to increase to 25% at the end of the year. More than half of Chinese imports now face punitive taxes, so it’s remarkable that the U.S. still hasn’t spelled out what it wants from Beijing. The lack of a strategy makes it hard to secure meaningful gains and resolve a trade war that is damaging both economies.

The Administration is on solid ground when it says China’s behavior threatens the global trading system. A study by the U.S. Trade Representative found “numerous unfair policies and practices relating to United States technology and intellectual property.” There is bipartisan U.S. support to address China’s violations of its promises to respect market forces.

But Mr. Trump also continues to rail against China for its large bilateral trade surplus with the U.S., and this is clearly motivating his escalation of tariffs. The surplus is driven largely by Chinese comparative advantage in low-end manufacturing and global capital flows to the U.S. Prioritizing a goal that flies in the face of market forces sends a mixed message to Beijing on what the U.S. wants, and it allows China to pose as the defender of free trade.

Cabinet members have tried to negotiate deals that would satisfy Mr. Trump’s obsession with the trade deficit, only to have him reject them as insufficient. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross struck a compromise last year on steel production that was discarded after he returned from Beijing. In May Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin reached a tentative deal to put tariffs on hold if the Chinese bought more soybeans and natural gas, but the White House resumed its tariff threats in June.

Mr. Trump is correct on many points, including his complaints that his predecessors failed to address changing Chinese behavior. China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 assumed the country was committed to what it then called “reform and opening” and would honor its promises to let foreign companies compete and protect intellectual property. The agreement largely treated China like other trading nations and relied on WTO arbitration to resolve disputes.

But China’s economic reforms stalled after its WTO entry. Beijing responded to the global financial crisis by directing credit to state-owned enterprises, which led officials to discriminate against foreign companies. After President Xi Jinping took power in 2012, he continued this trend and created the “Made in China 2025” plan requiring foreign companies to turn over intellectual property in return for access to China.

If China were a small country, the U.S. could afford to absorb surplus goods and let American consumers benefit. China’s effort to leapfrog into the ranks of developed economies by forcing companies to relocate their most valuable processes and pervert the law of comparative advantage will ultimately fail.

But when the world’s second-largest economy goes rogue, the collateral damage is huge and has undermined political support in the U.S. and the West for free trade. More ominously, China’s mercantilism is part of a larger Xi Jinping strategy to establish a new military and commercial hegemony in Asia.

The U.S. goal now should be to negotiate a deal with Beijing that sets new rules of the trading road. That agreement should seek to change Chinese practices, not reduce the trade deficit per se. This may require superseding current WTO rules, and that is best accomplished with a united front that includes the world’s other major trading powers.

Mr. Trump has instead employed a unilateral tariff policy that lets him boast about being tough without a clear goal. The tariffs will hurt Chinese exporters, though many will move production to other countries. But tariffs also damage American producers and consumers, as does the $60 billion in new retaliatory tariffs that Beijing announced Tuesday.

Strong U.S. growth after tax reform and deregulation is so far dwarfing the overall economic harm from tariffs, as Tuesday’s market nonchalance indicates. But the tariffs are doing arbitrary harm to innocent Americans, and a policy of hurting yourself until the other guy changes his behavior is hard to sustain. Mr. Trump’s political support will erode if he can’t deliver the new trade deals he promises.

If Mr. Trump wants to change Chinese behavior, he should first finish a new NAFTA, drop his blunderbuss steel tariffs on allies, forget new auto tariffs, negotiate a zero tariff deal with Europe, and re-enter the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Then lead a coalition to confront Xi Jinping from a position of strength with targeted trade enforcement rather than scattershot tariffs. The real worry is that Mr. Trump supports tariffs for their own sake, and he may not want a China deal. With Donald Trump and trade, you never know.

Source: Posted September 18, 2018; retrieved November 25, 2018 from: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-missing-china-trade-strategy-1537313246

—————-

Related Media – Foreign Edition Podcast

Asia Avoids a Crisis; Britain Falls Into One – http://traffic.megaphone.fm/WSJ6726301554.mp3

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In Defense of Trade – India’s Business Process Outsourcing

Go Lean Commentary

Pay more than the usual attention to Trade

… this is the urging of this series of commentaries. Why?

Trade may be the panacea (cure all) for the ills of the Caribbean. Let’s consider one example, BPO.

BPO = Business Process Outsourcing

Individually, these 3 words are very common in our daily life: Business, Process and Outsourcing. Put together and most people … have no clue.

BPO is not just an informal association of these 3 letters. Rather it’s a formal business model; see this encyclopedic reference:

Business process outsourcing (BPO) is a subset of outsourcing that involves the contracting of the operations and responsibilities of a specific business process to a third-party service provider. Originally, this was associated with manufacturing firms, such as Coca-Cola that outsourced large segments of its supply chain.[1]

BPO is typically categorized into back office outsourcing, which includes internal business functions such as human resources or finance and accounting, and front office outsourcing, which includes customer-related services such as contact center (customer care) services.[2]

BPO that is contracted outside a company’s country is called offshore outsourcing. BPO that is contracted to a company’s neighbouring (or nearby) country is called nearshore outsourcing.

Often the business processes are information technology-based, and are referred to as ITES-BPO, where ITES stands for Information Technology Enabled Service.[3] Knowledge process outsourcing (KPO) and legal process outsourcing (LPO) are some of the sub-segments of business process outsourcing industry.

Benefits
The main advantage of any BPO is the way in which it helps increase a company’s flexibility. However, several sources have different ways in which they perceive organizational flexibility. In early 2000s BPO was all about cost efficiency, which allowed a certain level of flexibility at the time. Due to technological advances and changes in the industry (specifically the move to more service-based rather than product-based contracts), companies who choose to outsource their back-office increasingly look for time flexibility and direct quality control.[4] Business process outsourcing enhances the flexibility of an organization in different ways:

  • … transforming fixed into variable costs.[7]
  • … focus on its core competencies, without being burdened by the demands of bureaucratic restraints.[9]
  • … increasing the speed of business processes.
  • … allows firms to retain their entrepreneurial speed and agility, which they would otherwise sacrifice in order to become efficient as they expanded.

Source: Retrieved November 23, 2018 from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_process_outsourcing

The most common BPO in the US is payroll-processing. Most companies have specific missions, they are not in the payroll business, but payroll – every week, bi-week, fortnight, or monthly – is a necessary evil for operations. BPO for this HR-Accounting functionality allows the firm to concentrate on its mission and enjoy greater functionality and sometimes better cost savings.

Here’s another: have you gotten a Passport lately? Then chances are you are familiar with the subject. You show up with a completed application and a photo; a clerk receives you and inspects your form for completeness; they package your submissions into a bundled folder and send it off for processing (Black-box). 2 weeks, 3 weeks or 5 weeks later (according to the Service Level Agreement or SLA), a finished passport is ready for pick-up. That Black-box is classic BPO.

Worldwide, the BPO market is estimated at about US$140 billion for 2016 – from the BPO Services Global Industry Almanac 2017.[27]  One country has double-down on this strategy that they can provide jobs, entrepreneurial opportunities and economic growth to their citizens by pursuing more and more BPO.

This is India. See the related VIDEO in Appendix B below.

The foregoing encyclopedic reference continues:

India, China and the Philippines are major powerhouses in the industry. In 2017, in India the BPO industry generated US$30 billion in revenue according to the national industry association.[28] The BPO industry is a small segment of the total outsourcing industry in India. The BPO industry and IT services industry in combination are worth a total of US$154 billion in revenue in 2017.[29] The BPO industry in the Philippines generated $22.9 billion in revenues in 2016.[30] In 2015, official statistics put the size of the total outsourcing industry in China, including not only the BPO industry but also IT outsourcing services, at $130.9 billion.[31]

Lessons learned from India is not unfamiliar to this movement behind the book Go Lean…Caribbean. Here we go again!

We can benefit from the consideration of trade with other countries; we previously considered China and now we are looking at India. This commentary is the 3rd of the 5-part series (3 of 5) from the movement behind the book Go Lean…Caribbean in consideration of the subject “In Defense of Trade“. The focus here is that Trade must be prioritized in the Caribbean region if we want a new economic regime. The other commentaries in the series are cataloged as follows:

  1. In Defense of Trade: China Realities
  2. In Defense of Trade: Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade Model – ENCORE
  3. In Defense of Trade: India BPO’s
  4. In Defense of Trade: Bilateral Tariffs – No one wins
  5. In Defense of Trade: Currency Assassins – Real Threat

The Go Lean movement asserts that Trade is pivotal for Caribbean growth. It does not only affect the region’s economics, but the security and governing engines as well. In the case of BPO, the trade product is intellectual: human services. India has benefited greatly from Wall Street’s BPO jobs; this Asia region now boasts 10 percent of all the jobs servicing Wall Street banks; see Appendix A below for a full article of how Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs employ professional functions in their Bangalore BPO facility, including Quantitative Analysts. We need to pay more than the usual attention to this model. We can copy some of the BPO functionality and bring jobs here to the Caribbean.

The Go Lean book serves as a roadmap for the introduction and implementation of the technocratic Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU). The CU seeks to optimize the region’s economic systems to better deliver on the prime directives of the Go Lean roadmap. The prime directives are pronounced as the following statements:

  • Optimization of the economic engines in order to grow the regional economy to $800 Billion & create 2.2 million new jobs.
  • Establishment of a security apparatus to protect the resultant economic engines and mitigate challenges/threats to ensure public safety for the region’s stakeholders.
  • Improvement of Caribbean governance to support these economic/security engines, including a separation-of-powers between member-states and CU federal agencies.

So the CU Trade Federation vision is to provide the stewardship for the region’s economic engines, to optimize trade so as to succeed in the goals of the roadmap.

The Go Lean/CU roadmap details how to drive change for the 30 member-states and their economic, security and governing engines. The Go Lean book – within its 370 pages – describes the new community ethos, strategies, tactics, implementations and advocates that must be executed to manifest this roadmap.

BPO’s are affiliated with Contact Centers …

… this commentary had previously identified the economic benefits that can come to a community that invest in BPO’s:

With modern Internet Communications Technology (ICT) – think Voice-over-IP – a phone call can originate or terminate around the globe, but feel/sound like it is next door. The premise of this business model for the Caribbean is simple: Why not make those calls / answer the phone here in the Caribbean?

Jobs are at stake.

Direct and indirect jobs at physical and virtual call centers: 12,000.

In addition to these industry jobs; there is also the reality of indirect jobs – unrelated service and attendant functions – at a 3.75 multiplier rate would add another 45,000 jobs.

The subject of banking jobs have been thoroughly elaborated upon in these previous Go Lean blog-commentaries:

https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=15923 Industrial Reboot – Payment Cards 101
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=15479 ‘Lean Is’ as ‘Lean Does’ – Good Bank Project Management
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=14242 Leading with Money Matters – Follow the Jobs
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=11184 JPMorganChase spent $10 billion on ‘Fintech’ for 1 year

In summary, while the Caribbean is arguably the best address on the planet, we have a deficiency in job creation. We need more trade. There is the opportunity to double-down on trade … in services – BPO’s await us – this will create more jobs.

India did this – mastering trade and globalization – so can we.

This is the Go Lean roadmap. This plan is conceivable, believable and achievable.

We urge everyone in the Caribbean – bankers et al – to lean-in to this roadmap to make the Caribbean a better place to live, work and play. 🙂

Download the free e-Book of Go Lean … Caribbean – now!

Sign the petition to lean-in for this roadmap for the Caribbean Union Trade Federation.

———————-

Appendix A – Title: The new back office: inside Goldman Sachs’ Bangalore hub 
Sub-title:
Quants are hired in India as economics, politics and tech shape the banking industry
By: Andrew Hill

When Goldman Sachs opened its wholly owned Bangalore operation in 2004, it was a typical back office. Just under 300 full-time staff supported a front line of revenue-generating bankers worldwide. They worked in limited areas such as information technology, finance and accounting.

The group put no cap on Bangalore’s ambitions, says Bunty Bohra, who heads the office, but “we didn’t envisage anything like the scale and complexity” of the current operation — let alone what is now planned for the group.

Goldman now employs about 5,000 staff in Bangalore, 4,000 of them full-time, across almost every division of the bank, including revenue-generating “front office” roles. In 2019, it expects to open a $250m campus on Bangalore’s traffic-clogged outer ring road that will be able to accommodate 9,000 people in two buildings, across 1m sq ft.

The evolution of Goldman’s presence in Bangalore is one example of how economics, technology and politics have shaped the back office over the past 15 years. Companies have started to look at back offices not just as low-cost support centres, but sources of skills for the rest of the organisation. At the same time, they have learnt to flex the mixture and location of their own staff, and of outsourced teams, to meet customer needs.

In the mid-1990s, multinationals strove to cut the cost of support functions such as handling payroll, or dealing with customer queries. Moving them to cheaper countries such as India was the obvious solution. Since then, however, the response to the question of how, where and with whom to carry out back-office functions has become more complex, and more strategic.

Goldman is a case in point. Its Bangalore-based staff now represent 14 activities — from compliance and legal services to investment banking, though the most senior client-handling vice-presidents still operate out of Mumbai. “It really is a talent story, not ‘Where are there people and office space that’s inexpensive?’” says Mr Bohra. Last year, for instance, the bank hired 150 “quants” in Bangalore. These mathematicians and scientists work on the bank’s quantitative investment strategies, but also analyse big data in areas such as risk management or human resources.

The bank’s plans for its new campus would allow it to expand to become the biggest office outside New York. But at the same time, the bank does not have to take up the option to lease the second of two buildings. At the moment, it expects headcount to remain flat. Mr Bohra uses an analogy with a potentially uncontrollable family pet: “We don’t want to have a ‘golden retriever’ problem. We want the intellect, maturity and seasoning to exist at the same time.”

This is only one way in which companies are reviewing their back-office strategy. For instance, growth in the use of “captive” centres, serving the whole company, has accelerated. Ilan Oshri of Loughborough University found that between 1990 and 2009, the world’s largest 250 companies established 367 captive centres worldwide. There are now an estimated 2,000 such hubs.

Outsourcing companies have also become more agile. Susir Kumar, chairman of Intelenet Global Services, says outsourcers have moved from carrying out processes to making more judgments for clients. Intelenet’s agents have long had the responsibility for deciding, say, whether to grant a loan or approve an insurance claim. “The ability to manage change in a fast-changing environment is the key,” he says. Often, contract workers are used in a blend with in-house back-office staff.

Even Goldman’s Bangalore operation, which prides itself on propagating a “Goldman culture”, now outsources certain functions — such as accounting — to multiple contractors.

Prof Oshri says the trend of companies moving their offshored back offices to the next cheapest location as labour costs increase has also changed.

One factor for large companies that have expanded overseas is political pressure to “bring jobs home”. That could be a particular issue for US retail banks. They are potentially in president Donald Trump’s line of fire, although they argue they need to support front offices round the clock, and therefore round the world.

Other sectors have, over the past five years, also started to trim earlier policies to offshore customer service operations. In the UK, Santander, the bank, United Utilities, the water company, and BT all “reshored” call-centre work from India in 2011. Vodafone UK recently announced it would create 2,100 jobs across the UK, essentially by relocating customer service roles currently carried out, via an external agency, in South Africa. Last year’s Brexit vote could accelerate the trend, as outsourcers and insourcers adapt to a more nationalistic popular tone.

In the case of call centres, location is highly dependent on customers’ perception of quality — bluntly, whether they can understand the call-centre staff. But there are other advantages to having support staff closer to headquarters, including control over recruitment, rewards and training. Strategic support functions, like risk management, may be better handled by a “middle office”, based closer to the main revenue-generating activities.

The cost and skills combination needed for back offices still tilts the choices heavily towards emerging markets, though. Vodafone UK’s IT shared services are still in Bangalore and Pune in India, where it uses a blend of captive operations and third parties, often dealing with enterprise customers.

Campbell Harvey of Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business says cost is still companies’ main motivation and technology will be a more important influence than politics on future back-office decisions. “People traditionally doing back-office functions in New York and London were disrupted by offshoring and that’s a sideshow compared with what’s coming,” he says.

That said, while the rise of machine learning sounds like a threat to back-office jobs, when Prof Oshri asked 150 corporate buyers of outsourced services how much they had spent on cognitive computing, the answer averaged out at £350,000 per enterprise over the past five years — barely enough to cover a pilot project.

Leslie Willcocks of London School of Economics says he is “staggered how slow” big organisations are to introduce basic automation, let alone artificial intelligence.

Intelenet’s Mr Kumar is equally sanguine, both about the US political pressure, to which he thinks the industry will adapt, and the rise of the robots. He believes the same number of employees will work with machines to do more sophisticated jobs for clients. But Prof Harvey has a warning for institutions that do not plan ahead. “It’s a race to the bottom and the bottom is not a human, it’s a machine.”

Source: The Financial Times – Posted April 13, 2017; retrieved November 23, 2018 from: https://www.ft.com/content/6c1481ea-185d-11e7-9c35-0dd2cb31823a

———————-

Appendix B VIDEO – The Transformation Of India’s BPO Industry – https://youtu.be/44RlATt7S2w


NDTV

Published on Nov 19, 2017 –
India’s BPO industry first caught our imagination over a decade ago with its world-class offices and relatively high starting salaries. But with the downsides of strange shift timings and stranger accents. How has it changed since then? As it lost its novelty value, the BPO world fell out of the headlines. Is the industry still flourishing in India or have protectionism, automation and competition from other countries hurt the famous Indian outsourcing industry?

NDTV is one of the leaders in the production and broadcasting of un-biased and comprehensive news and entertainment programmes in India and abroad. NDTV delivers reliable information across all platforms: TV, Internet and Mobile.

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In Defense of Trade – Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade Model – ENCORE

Today is the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US. It’s a Public Holiday, that the government has set-aside for the population to Give Thanks … to whomever …

This is a civic holiday more so than it is a religious holiday.

It is also a commercial holiday – lots of Trade activities; lots of Trade Inspirations.

The Trade Inspiration applies to us in the Caribbean. There is one event associated with the American Thanksgiving tradition that gives us pause – as observers and reporters of the America eco-system – that is the Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade. This subject has been detailed in a previous Go Lean Commentary from November 25, 2016; it is appropriate to Encore that now; see below.

This commentary is the 2nd of the 5-part series (2 of 5) from the movement behind the book Go Lean…Caribbean in consideration of the subject “In Defense of Trade“. The focus here is that Trade must be prioritized in the Caribbean region if we want a new economic regime. The other commentaries in the series are cataloged as follows:

  1. In Defense of Trade: China Realities
  2. In Defense of Trade: Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade Model – ENCORE
  3. In Defense of Trade: India BPO’s
  4. In Defense of Trade: Bilateral Tariffs – No one wins
  5. In Defense of Trade: Currency Assassins – Real Threat

No doubt, there is the need to grow the Caribbean economy; we need jobs, entrepreneurial opportunities, better educational and healthcare options, a safer homeland and more efficient governmental services. Since trade policies (chattel goods and intellectual property) affect all of these deliveries, we need to pay more than the usual attention to these discussions. Truthfully, we do NOT have a lot of chattel goods in our region; we do not manufacture much; but we can thrive in the intellectual property arena. This is where we need successful role models to show us how we can better exploit the opportunities with trade.

Let’s look-listen-learn from the Macy’s model. See the Encore here:

—————————————

Go Lean CommentaryModel of the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade – By The Numbers

“We are giving this for free as a gift to America” – CNBC Newscast: Amy Kule, Executive Producer, 2014 Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade*.

Free?

Hardly! There is nothing free about American Thanksgiving. This is just another example of American Crony-Capitalism. Consider the facts in this VIDEO here of the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, by the numbers:

VIDEOMacy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade by the Numbers – http://www.aol.com/video/channel/news/582e4599134aa15f420ded1a/

playbutton-300x300

Click on the Photo to Play VIDEO 

This discussion is promoting the idea of the Caribbean modeling the best-practices of American commerce – there are a lot of economic returns from events. The Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, in the foregoing, is an event – one of the biggest on the calendar for New York City. So the focus of this commentary is the impact that one event can have on the societal engines of a community: economics, security and governance.

One person – or company – can make a difference.

Notice how this parade is mostly administered by one private company: Macy’s Department Stores.

Reference Title: Macy’s Department Store
Macy’s, originally R. H. Macy & Co., is a department store owned by Macy’s, Inc. It is one of two divisions owned by the company, with the other being Bloomingdale’s. As of January 2014, the Macy’s division operates 789 department store locations in the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Guam, including the prominent Herald Square flagship location in Midtown Manhattan, New York City.[2]:35

cu-blog-macys-thanksgiving-day-parade-by-the-numbers-photo-2Macy’s has conducted the annual Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York City since 1924 and has sponsored the city’s annual Fourth of July fireworks display since 1976. Macy’s Herald Square is the largest department store in the world. The flagship store covers almost an entire New York City block, features about 1.1 million square feet of retail space, includes additional space for offices and storage, and serves as the endpoint for Macy’s annual Thanksgiving Day parade. It is estimated that the value of Herald Square is under $3 billion to more than $4 billion.[3]

As of 2015, Macy’s is the largest U.S. department store company by retail sales and is the 15th-largest retailer in the United States for 2014 in terms of revenue.[4][5]
Source: Retrieved November 25, 2016 from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macy%27s

The focus of the book Go Lean…Caribbean is to elevate the Caribbean economic disposition, based on the existing infrastructure and new implementations. So we would want to look-listen-learn from this American model and then apply the lessons here in the Caribbean. Events are integral to the touristic experience; this is why the Go Lean book, serving as a roadmap for the introduction and implementation of the technocratic Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU), details so many dimensions of eco-system for events. The book prominently highlights that even small towns can get in on the economic buoyancy of events by detailing the role model of the City of Sturgis (population 6,600) in the US State of South Dakota – Page 191. Their annual event – Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in August – generates about $800 million in community revenues.

Successful management of events is a mission of Go Lean roadmap. The region needs the jobs. These events – think Carnival or Junkanoo in the Bahamas – create permanent and temporary jobs. This is part-and-parcel of the Go Lean/CU prime directives, as identified with the following 3 statements:

  • Optimization of the economic engines in order to grow the regional economy to $800 Billion & create 2.2 million overall new jobs; 9,000 jobs are attributed to Events.
  • Establishment of a security apparatus to protect the resultant economic engines.
  • Improve Caribbean governance to support these engines.

The Go Lean book presented the roadmap to imbrue the Caribbean region with new community ethos, plus new strategies, tactics, implementation and advocacies to improve event-job creation in the region. The following is a sample of these specific details from the book:

Community Ethos – Deferred Gratification Page 21
Community Ethos – Economic Principles – People Choose Page 21
Community Ethos – Economic Principles – People Respond to Incentives in Predictable Ways Page 21
Community Ethos – Economic Principles – Economic Systems Influence Individual Choices Page 21
Community Ethos – Economic Principles – The Consequences of Choices Lie in the Future Page 21
Community Ethos – Governing Principles – Lean Operations Page 24
Community Ethos – Governing Principles – Cooperatives Page 25
Community Ethos – Ways to Impact the Future Page 26
Community Ethos – Ways to Foster Genius – Consider Artists, Musicians and Performers Page 27
Community Ethos – Ways to Help Entrepreneurship Page 28
Community Ethos – Ways to Promote Happiness Page 36
Community Ethos – Ways to Impact the Greater Good Page 37
Strategy – Vision – Confederate 30 Member-States Page 45
Strategy – Mission – Celebrate the Music, Sports, Art and Culture of the Caribbean Page 46
Tactical – Confederating a Permanent Union Page 63
Tactical – Fostering a Technocracy Page 64
Tactical – Separation-of-Powers – CU Federal Agencies versus Member-State Governments Page 71
Implementation – Ways to Pay for Change Page 101
Implementation – Ways to Deliver Page 109
Planning – 10 Big Ideas for the Caribbean Region Page 127
Planning – Ways to Make the Caribbean Better Page 131
Planning – Lessons from New York City Page 137
Planning – Lessons from Omaha – College World Series Model Page 138
Advocacy – Ways to Grow the Economy Page 151
Advocacy – Ways to Create Jobs Page 152
Advocacy – Ways to Enhance Tourism Page 190
Advocacy – Ways to Impact Events Page 191
Advocacy – Ways to Promote Fairgrounds Page 192
Advocacy – Ways to Preserve Caribbean Heritage Page 218
Advocacy – Ways to Improve Sports – Fairgrounds as Sport Venues Page 229
Advocacy – Ways to Improve the Arts Page 230
Advocacy – Ways to Promote Music Page 231

The empowerments in the Go Lean book calls for permanent change to ensure that Caribbean people have opportunities; they only want to be able to provide for their families and preserve their unique Caribbean culture.

The Go Lean roadmap offers the technocratic execution of these deliverables. Imagine the expansion of the existing events in the region. Plus, imagine the artistic expressions and entertainment (singers, dancers, musicians, performers, etc.). Just like for the Macy’s Parade in the foregoing, economic gains await. This is the business model of “events”. From the outset, the Go Lean book recognized the significance of events and festivities in the roadmap with these statements in the opening Declaration of Interdependence (Page 12 & 14):

xxi.  Whereas the preparation of our labor force can foster opportunities and dictate economic progress for current and future generations, the Federation must … recognize and facilitate excellence in many different fields of endeavor, including sciences, languages, arts, music and sports. This responsibility should be executed without incurring the risks of further human flight, as has been the past history.

xxxii. Whereas the cultural arts and music of the region are germane to the quality of Caribbean life, and the international appreciation of Caribbean life, the Federation must implement the support systems to teach, encourage, incentivize, monetize and promote the related industries for arts and music in domestic and foreign markets. These endeavors will make the Caribbean a better place to live, work and play.

There are many other communities that have flourished in this strategy – business model of fun and festivities – as depicted with the example of the Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade. Success is possible; we need only to look, listen and learn.

Many previous Go Lean blog-commentaries have focused on the business of events. See samples-examples detailed in these previous blogs:

https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=9712 Forging Change: Panem et Circenses
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=5251 Post-Mortem of Inaugural Junkanoo Carnival
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=4879 Model of a Sports Event: Martinique Surfing
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=3292 Model of an Artistic Event: Art Basel Miami
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=2152 Model of a Sports Event: Little League World Series
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=1341 College World Series Time – Lessons from Omaha
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=1214 Landlord of Temporary Stadiums
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=535 Event Security: Remembering and learning from Boston
https://goleancaribbean.com/blog/?p=318 Collegiate Sports in the Caribbean

Now is the time for all of the Caribbean, the people and governing institutions, to lean-in for the empowerments in the book Go Lean … Caribbean. This is a Big Idea for the region; that of expanding Caribbean events for greater economic throughput. We have the foundations in place already, the many artistic, cultural and sporting events for locals and visitors.

We can employ the strategies, tactics and implementations from models like the Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade to make our Caribbean region a better place to live, work and play. 🙂

Download the book Go Lean … Caribbean – now!

———

Appendix * – Source References:

https://youtu.be/61kyIsEBuUA posted Published on Nov 26, 2014; (retrieved November 25, 2016).

Executive producer of the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, Amy Kule, provides insight to the numbers behind tomorrow’s big parade and reveals some new characters.

———

Appendix VIDEO7 Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade Facts You Never Knew!https://youtu.be/zOtWeyh1aRs

 

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In Defense of Trade – China Realities

Go Lean Commentary

Here’s the challenge:

You have 1.3 billion people; you must facilitate economic growth to provide them with jobs, basic needs and the pursuit of happiness. Where do you go? What do you do?

Answer: Trade, trade, trade …

This is what the experts say.

The experts? Economists …

These economists say the best practice to grow an economy is to double-down on trade and market-based economics.

Voluntary Trade Creates Wealth: People specialize in the production of certain goods and services because they expect to gain from it. People trade what they produce with other people when they think they can gain something from the exchange. Some benefits of voluntary trade include higher standards of living and broader choices of goods and services.

This urging was proclaimed in the book Go Lean…Caribbean which presents the strategies, tactics, implementations and advocacies for growing the Caribbean economy. The book serves as a roadmap for the introduction and implementation of the technocratic Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU). Yes, the emphasis is on trade . The CU will serve as an integrated entity to shepherd progress and optimization among the region’s societal engines for economics, security and governance.

This best practice for societal growth is a lesson learned from the study of other communities – ancient and modern – that have done “this” successfully. The book presents the role models of the Great Britain, United States, Germany, Japan, Asian Tigers (Singapore, Hong Kong. South Korea and Taiwan).

So China doubling-down on trade is just another iteration of the accepted best practice of market-based economics. In fact in a previous blog-commentary about China’s motive – their end game – for Caribbean investments, the following points were detailed:

If this Golden Rule is true: “he who has the gold makes the rules”, then we will be held to account to stakeholders in China, as their many state-own companies are definitely “bringing gold” to the table. This was vividly communicated in a previous (2014) China-Caribbean Trade/Business Summit:

“Latin America has much to gain from deepening its relationship with China, just as China has much to gain from our region,” said Luis Alberto Moreno, president of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). “For our governments, this is a strategic priority. But much of the day-to-day building of those links will fall on the private sector.”

China joined the IDB as a shareholder in 2009, and is now the top trade partner for several countries in the region, including Brazil and Chile.

Trade between Latin America and the Caribbean and China is expected to double in the next decade. … Source: http://caribjournal.com/2014/09/15/china-holds-business-summit-with-latin-america-caribbean/

This is the same playbook of the United States of America in building the world’s largest Single Market economy. (Remember, with the Army Corp of Engineers, the US built the Panama Canal, but with more strings attached). China is simply following the same American script – minus the cronyism and militarism – of promoting trade of their products, services and capital.

Capital? Yes, many of the projects highlighted … are being financed by China’s state-owned banks and lending institutions. They are “putting their money, where their mouth is”. These are economic battles only!

This commentary is the first of a 5-part series from the movement behind the Go Lean book in consideration of the subject “In Defense of Trade“. The focus here is that Trade must be prioritized in the Caribbean region if we want a new economic regime. The other commentaries in the series are cataloged as follows:

  1. In Defense of Trade: China Realities
  2. In Defense of Trade: Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade Model – ENCORE
  3. In Defense of Trade: India BPO’s
  4. In Defense of Trade: Bilateral Tariffs – No one wins
  5. In Defense of Trade: Currency Assassins – Real Threat

No doubt, there is the need to grow the Caribbean economy; we need jobs, entrepreneurial opportunities, better educational and healthcare options, a safer homeland and more efficient governmental services. Since trade policies (chattel goods and intellectual property) affect all of these deliveries, we need to pay more than the usual attention to these discussions. Trade has also been prominent in the news as of late, with the current American Federal government’s (under President Donald Trump) new penchant for tariffs and the UK negotiating a new trade deal as they leave the European Union (Brexit).

So there is the need for a 360 degree view of trade: the good; the bad; and the ugly. The Caribbean status quo is ugly, in terms of trade, there is the need to reform and transform, so as to reboot our society. But we are not the first, (and will not be the last). Let’s see the lessons we can learn from the trade strategies, tactics and implementations of others. We can all benefit!

Let’s start with China; there are parallels to consider. They need to provide for 1.3 Billion people, and so they are embracing market-based economics. In the Caribbean we only need to provide for 42 million, but we are like a fish in the pond; it does not matter how big the ocean is, we are limited to our pond. This is the definition of scope; our time, talents and treasuries must be designed to impact just these 30 island-nations and coastal states. Despite the size, there is the need for efficiency and effectiveness with market-based economic concepts. This is defined in the Go Lean book as technocratic/technocracy:

The term technocracy was originally used to designate the application of the scientific method to solving social & economic problems, in counter distinction to the traditional political or philosophic approaches. – Go Lean book Page 64.

The CU seeks to optimize the region’s economic systems – to make more efficient and effective – to better deliver on the prime directives of the Go Lean roadmap. The prime directives are pronounced as the following statements:

  • Optimization of the economic engines in order to grow the regional economy to $800 Billion & create 2.2 million new jobs.
  • Establishment of a security apparatus to protect the resultant economic engines and mitigate challenges/threats to ensure public safety for the region’s stakeholders.
  • Improvement of Caribbean governance, including a separation-of-powers with member-states, to support these economic/security engines.

So the CU Trade Federation vision is to provide the stewardship for the region’s economic engines, to optimize trade (chattel goods and intellectual property), so as to succeed in the goals of the roadmap. The focus on trade is intra-region so as to minimize the expenditure of foreign reserves and also extra-regional so as to grow the economy. This vision was pronounced at the outset of the book in the opening Declaration of Interdependence (Page 13):

vi. Whereas the finite nature of the landmass of our lands limits the populations and markets of commerce, by extending the bonds of brotherhood to our geographic neighbors allows for extended opportunities and better execution of the kinetics of our economies through trade. This regional focus must foster and promote diverse economic stimuli.

xxiv.   Whereas a free market economy can be induced and spurred for continuous progress, the Federation must install the controls to better manage aspects of the economy: jobs, inflation, savings rate, investments and other economic principles. Thereby attracting direct foreign investment because of the stability and vibrancy of our economy.

According to the following article-commentary from Canada, expanding trade with China –  a willing partner – is a good strategy for improving the economic engines of a community – trade is that important:

Title: We need a China trade strategy, so let’s get it right
By: Edward Greenspon and Kevin Lynch

With exports over 30 per cent of GDP, Canada’s economy would be much smaller and its citizens considerably poorer if not for trade and investment with other countries. That three-quarters of that trade relies on ready access to the increasingly self-absorbed, aggressive and fickle United States is cause for serious deliberation, beyond indignation.

Canada’s special relationship with the United States has served us both well. It is always a risky proposition to have so many eggs in a single basket, but those risks were mitigated by Canada’s embrace of predictable rules to govern both bilateral trade, beginning with the Auto Pact, which morphed into the Canada-U.S. free-trade agreement (FTA) and NAFTA, and the international-trading system through the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and World Trade Organization (WTO).

Even in the best of times, there were breakdowns, such as the repeated U.S. attacks over softwood lumber or former president Barack Obama’s rejection of the Keystone pipeline. Unfortunately, we’ve now entered a world where it’s softwood lumber all the time. So, what are we to do?

Some answers are clear enough. The long-held and oft-ignored objective of diversifying our trade relations must be pursued with urgency and vigour. Canada has done well by its recent agreements with the European Union and with Japan and others in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Business leaders must now put commercial meat on the bones of these agreements.

Secondly, if a trading country such as Canada wants to grow, by definition it needs to trade with countries with both fast growth and with sufficient scale to make an appreciable difference to our export volumes. By and large, these are Asian – and you can’t speak of Asia without including China in the conversation. China’s annual growth is roughly two to three times that of Canada and the United States – off a base of 1.3 billion people. Any government seeking to represent the national interests of Canadians in the time of Donald Trump must be in possession of a long-term strategy that includes China, and not, as for more than a decade, a hodgepodge of inconsistent and reactive decisions.

Canadians don’t seem troubled by the proposition of an Asian diversification strategy with China at its core. Despite concerns about Chinese authoritarianism, human-rights violations and the perceived behaviour of some state-owned enterprises, polling shows support for a free-trade agreement trending up over the past few years. Qualtrics places the number at about 70 per cent and the Asia-Pacific Foundation about 10 points lower. No poll puts it below 50 per cent.

This shift in Canadian attitudes began even before Mr. Trump’s immodest arrival on the scene. His words and deeds have merely added impetus. Canadians get that American economic and geopolitical power is declining in relative terms and that China is an emerging force to reckon with. In the Asia Pacific Foundation’s recent annual survey, 59 per cent of respondents believe trade with Asia, led by China, will outweigh trade with the United States in the future. Canadians essentially are asking: “How can we not have a clear engagement strategy with a country that within the next 10 years will be the world’s biggest economy, largest exporter of capital, goods and services, largest emitter of [greenhouse gases] GHGs, a technology superpower and the world’s largest source of tourists and expatriate students?”

As co-chairs of the Public Policy Forum’s Consultative Forum on China, we have spent the past 14 months consulting on what a made-in-Canada strategy for future Canada-China relations should look like. Our blueprint will be released in the fall.

It is strikingly clear from our discussions that more value-added trade in sectors such as agri-food, forestry, resources, educational services, tourism and clean-tech is unambiguously beneficial for Canadians. Selling lobsters and lumber raise no national security flags, real or imagined, but they do create lots of jobs all across Canada. A case in point today is the 180 fishing fleet jobs and 304 processing plant positions in Atlantic Canada directly flowing from Clearwater Foods’ seafood exports to China.

Interestingly, both Canada and China have diversification agendas – we seek greater security of demand for our exports while China wants greater security of supply through trade arrangements with a broader range of exporting countries. Canada appeals because it is a highly developed, rule-of-law based, G7 country that poses few geopolitical risks, unlike many other global exporters.

Meanwhile, China, having raised hundreds of millions from poverty to middle-class status since it embraced a market-based economy, is now learning this middle class comes with expanding expectations for a better life – starting with livable cities, healthy food, safe workplaces, reliable pensions and available eldercare. Beyond traditional exports, China knows it can benefit from Canada’s long experience designing policies and services for the middle class.

China elicits a wide spectrum of passionately held views, of that there is no doubt. Whatever one may think, however, the question is whether a balanced engagement strategy with an economically dynamic China serves our national interests at a time when the President of the United States is pursuing a beggar-thy-neighbour policy. Risk management and prudent diversification certainly suggest yes. Time to decide how best.

———

Edward Greenspon is president and CEO of the Public Policy Forum. Kevin Lynch is co-chair of PPF’s Consultative Forum on China.

Source: The Globe & Mail – Toronto, Canada’s Largest Daily – Posted June 18, 2018; retrieved November 21, 2018 from: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-we-need-a-china-trade-strategy-so-lets-get-it-right/

This article stresses how important it is for Canada to trade with China, with this quotation:

… if a trading country such as Canada wants to grow, by definition it needs to trade with countries with both fast growth and with sufficient scale to make an appreciable difference to our export volumes …

We want this kind of growth right here in the Caribbean. Therefore we must also want market-based trade with China.

The underlying motivation of the Go Lean book is to reform and transform the Caribbean member-states. Therefore we need to embrace market-based economics, the way China has. They only shifted to a market-based economy since the 1970’s, and now they have the 2nd largest single market economy … in the world – it works that fast. While America – the champion of market-based economies – is the largest trading partner for Caribbean member-states, we cannot just be parasites; no, we must be protégées.

The CU roadmap seeks to drive change among the economic, security and governing engines. The Go Lean book – within its 370 pages – describes how and when a new Caribbean can emerge using market-based economic principles. These solutions are as new community ethos, strategies, tactics, implementations and advocates designed to grow the regional economy to $800 Billion.  Consider how and when in the specific plans, excerpts and headlines from the book on Page 67 entitled:

$800 Billion Economy – How and When? – 10 Reasons and Tactics

Quotation: The whole is worth more than the sum of its parts.
The CU is a confederation treaty to unify the region of 30 countries and 42 million people into a single market, an integrated economy with a GDP of $800 Billion, even though the sum of its parts amount to $378 Billion, (per 2010  World Bank ratings).
.
Why and how will this number grow to $800 Billion? For the 10 reasons and tactics provided below; this includes samples and examples of hyper growth scenarios in specific times and places from around the world, from the past to the present. When will the meter reach $800B? Not at first, but steadily over a 5 year period. This harmonizes with the economic “Catchup” principle of “convergence”. This establishes that emerging economies experience hyper-growth (7 to 20%) for a limited period, and then normalizes into standard growth patterns of 2 – 3% [180]. This has been the documented cases of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India & China) and the Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU) asserts that this Trade Federation will experience the same. This growth rate, from $378 Billion, would experience compounded GDP growth as follows:

  • Year 1 @ 20% = $454 Billion
  • Year 2 @ 20% = $544 Billion
  • Year 3 @ 15% = $625 Billion
  • Year 4 @ 15% = $720 Billion
  • Year 5 @ 12% = $806 Billion
1 Louisiana Purchase – US Experience
2 California Gold Rush to the Gilded Age
3 Post WW II Germany – Marshall Plan / Free Market
4 Post WW II Japan – No Marshall Plan
5 Convergence of East Asian Tigers
6 Economic Bubbles – $11 Trillion Burst / $13.5 Trillion Recovery
7 New High Multiplier Industries
8 Trade and Globalization
9 Repatriation
10 Education

The foregoing article details how beneficial trade with China could be, and how Canadians are not afraid of Chinese interactions:

Despite concerns about Chinese authoritarianism, human-rights violations and the perceived behaviour of some state-owned enterprises, polling shows support for a free-trade agreement trending up over the past few years.

See the related news VIDEO in the Appendix below.

The growth that China has shown is remarkable … and repeatable. We can model their successes here in our Caribbean region; the foregoing article conveyed their growth:

China, having raised hundreds of millions from poverty to middle-class status since it embraced a market-based economy.

The Caribbean is arguably the best address on the planet, but there are many deficiencies, as in jobs and economic empowerments. With the previous North & West (American) focus we have suffered. Our deficiencies has led to societal abandonment so bad that the region has lost a large share of our human capital, one estimate of 70% of the college-educated population to the brain-drain.

Yes, the Caribbean region needs the type of growth than can come from a progressive trade policy and market-based economics. We need to embrace Trade; this is the panacea for what ails our societal engines. Yes, we can improve with trade among ourselves and trade with foreigners. We cannot only look to the North & West – that strategy has worn thin – we must now look East and South; like China.

Mastering trade and globalization is how we must compete in today’s trade wars. This is the Go Lean roadmap.

Everyone in the Caribbean is urged to lean-in to this roadmap to make the Caribbean a better place to live, work and play. 🙂

Download the free e-Book of Go Lean … Caribbean – now!

Sign the petition to lean-in for this roadmap for the Caribbean Union Trade Federation.

———–

Appendix VIDEO – Trudeau outlines new Canada-China trade deals – https://youtu.be/-OTb6JqXGLw

Published on Sep 22, 2016 –  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau outlines the results of trade discussions with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang which include a new deal on canola. To read more: http://cbc.ca/1.3773699

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